20230920-兴证期货-甲醇_尿素日度报告_4页_336kb

Summary of the 2023年9月20日 Global Commodity Research: Methanol & Urea Daily Report

Methanol Summary

• Key Prices: Current spot prices include: Jiangsu at 2635 (45), Guangdong at 2585 (40), Lunan at 2480 (30), Inner Mongolia at 2185 (0), and CFR China main port at 268 (0) based on ZC data.
• Fundamentals: Domestic methanol output capacity increased slightly, with national operating rate at 73.16% (+0.23%), and regional rates rising, such as Northwest at 82.41% (+1.15%). Key events include shut-downs and restarts of plants like JiuTai Zunghua and other facilities, affecting supply. Port inventory continued to accumulate at 119.46 million tons. Import shipments are expected at 6.83 million tons between Sep 15-10 Oct.
• External Market: Global operating rates are recovering slowly after a drop, with specific incidents in Iran (ZPC plant shutdown) and Brunei (BMC plant restart).
• Demand: Downstream MTO facilities are resuming operations, and projects like Baofeng Phase III are boosting demand.
• Outlook: Methanol is expected to remain in an oscillating upward trend, influenced by energy prices like natural gas, crude oil, and coal; monitoring international factors is key.

Urea Summary

• Key Prices: Spot quotes range from Shandong at 2578 (4), Anhui at 2647 (0), Hebei at 2595 (10), Henan at 2600 (0). ZC data indicates steady but cautious market with increasing supply from resumed plants.
• Market Fundamentals: Urine prices are stable, with reduced pre-received orders and limited new deals. Supply slightly increased due to plant restarts, but demand is conservative.
• Policy and Export Factors: Government measures may support prices, but high price differentials and uncertain port activities limit export impact; energy costs provide support.
• Outlook: Urea is anticipated to oscillate with limited range due to mixed influences, focusing on policy changes and export realities.

The report emphasizes the interconnected impacts of energy markets on both commodities, suggesting a cautious outlook based on supply-demand dynamics and policy risks.