20221025-招银国际-China_Internet_Sector___September_online_retail_sales_recap_2页_439kb

China Internet Sector Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the China Internet Sector, with a specific focus on September 2022 online retail sales data. It is authored by CMB International Global Markets Limited (CMBIGM), a subsidiary of China Merchants Bank, and includes key insights, forecasts, and disclosures relevant to investors.

Main Points

1. Online Retail Sales Performance in September 2022

• Physical Goods GMV: Showed a sequential gradual recovery in YoY growth, with 6.1% YoY growth in 9M22 and 8.1% YoY growth in September 2022.
• Non-Physical Goods GMV: Dragged the overall recovery, particularly due to soft performance in online games and online travel agencies (OTAs).
• Total Online Retail Sales GMV: Reached RMB1.2tn in September 2022, up 6.2% YoY.
• Online Penetration: Continued to rise, reaching 25.7% of total consumer sales in September 2022, up 2.1pp YoY and 0.1pp MoM.

2. Sector-Specific Growth

• Food Category: Online GMV increased by 15.6% YoY in 9M22, slightly decelerating from 16.5% YoY in 8M22.
• Clothing and Consumer Goods: Showed acceleration, with 4.7% and 5.2% YoY growth in 9M22, respectively.
• Quarterly Growth (3Q22): Forecasted at 7.1% YoY, aligning with the 7.0% expected by the analysts.

3. Outlook for 4Q22 and 2022

• 4Q22 Forecast: Expected 8.5% YoY growth in online retail sales GMV for physical goods, driven by macroeconomic improvement and easier comparisons to 4Q21.
• Full-Year 2022 Forecast: Overall growth for online retail sales GMV of physical goods is projected at 6.9% YoY, down from 12.0% YoY in 2021.
• Double 11 Shopping Festival: Anticipated to further boost online penetration in November 2022.

4. Investment Focus

• Earnings Visibility: The short-term focus is on companies in the e-commerce sector with relatively higher visibility for earnings growth.
• Market Conditions: Analysts expect a gradual recovery in the sector, contingent on effective stimulus policies and recovery in consumption willingness.

Key Information

• Data Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the September 2022 online retail sales data on 24 October.
• Game Market Performance: Revenue in the China game market was RMB59.7bn in 3Q22, down 19.1% YoY, reflecting the lack of new game approvals and ongoing pandemic restrictions.
• Non-Physical Goods Recovery: Expected to take some time, given the limited supply of new game titles and strict policies.

CMBIGM Ratings

Industry Outlook

Disclosures

• The report is not investment advice and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions.
• Risks: There are risks involved in trading any securities, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
• Conflicts of Interest: CMBIGM may have investment banking relationships with companies mentioned, which could affect objectivity.
• Distribution Restrictions: The report is intended for specific investors (e.g., major US institutional investors, Accredited Investors, etc.) and may not be shared without prior consent.

Contact Information

• Saiyi HE, CFA: (852) 3916 1739 | hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk
• Ye TAO: franktao@cmbi.com.hk
• Wentao LU: luwentao@cmbi.com.hk

Legal & Regulatory Notes

• The report is prepared solely for information and not for trading.
• Hong Kong: CMBIGM is a subsidiary of China Merchants Bank.
• United Kingdom: The report is only provided to individuals falling under Article 19(5) or Article 49(2)(a)-(d) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.
• United States: CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer, and the report is for major US institutional investors only.
• Singapore: The report is distributed by CMBISG, an Exempt Financial Adviser regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.