战略与国际研究中心-Select-Briefing-Vol-4,-No-35_2页_296kb

CSIS New European Democracies Project Summary - October 19, 2007

Core Content Overview

This summary presents key developments in Central, Eastern, and Southeast European countries, focusing on political, economic, and strategic issues relevant to their integration into international institutions and regional cooperation.

Central Europe

Czech Republic

• UN Security Council Candidacy: The Czech Republic withdrew its non-permanent member candidacy for the U.N. Security Council after two unsuccessful election rounds. Officials are analyzing the reasons for the failure and will release an analytical report.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): According to the UNCTAD World Investment Report, FDI in the Czech Republic dropped by half in 2006. The decline is attributed to the inflated 2005 figures due to the privatization of Czech Telecom, not a loss of investor interest.

Poland

• Public Opinion Polls: The top opposition party, Civic Platform (PO), has gained a slight lead over Law and Justice (PiS) following televised debates. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for 21 October.
• Corruption Allegations: Beata Sawicka, a Polish deputy, was implicated in a bribery scheme involving land purchases on the Baltic coast. She recruited Wojciech Picheta, a Civic Platform deputy, to assist in the scheme. Picheta was subsequently fired by Donald Tusk.
• Gdansk Shipyard: The shipyard, a symbol of Polish resistance to communism, is set to be acquired by ISD Polska, a subsidiary of Ukraine's Donbas, increasing its stake from 18% to 75%. Donbas plans to boost productivity through investments in steel manufacturing.

Hungary

• Referendum on Tuition and Healthcare Fees: The Hungarian Constitutional Court approved Fidesz's request for referendums on university tuition and healthcare fees. Fidesz needs 200,000 signatures to trigger the national ballot.
• Government Criticism: Officials criticized the proposed referendum as a "waste of money."
• MOL and OMV Merger: Gyorgy Mosonyi, CEO of MOL, rejected speculation about a merger with OMV, citing potential EU competition law violations.
• Economic Projections: GKI lowered Hungary's GDP growth forecast to 2% for 2007, reduced investment growth to 2%, and raised inflation to 7.8%. Real wages are expected to decrease by 4.5%.

Slovakia

• Military Commitment: The Slovak government approved increasing troop numbers in Afghanistan and Kosovo to 111 and 174, respectively, to align with NATO priorities.
• Nuclear Power Plant: Slovakia plans to build a new nuclear power plant in Kecerovce by 2025 if the current Jaslovske Bohunice plant cannot be prolonged. The government will discuss this in its energy security strategy by 2030. Enel SpA is set to complete the Mochovce nuclear plant by 2012.
• Media Freedom: Slovakia ranks third in the world for media freedom, according to Reporters Without Borders.

Slovenia

• Military Cooperation: Slovenian Army Chief Albin Gutman met with his Macedonian counterpart, expressing satisfaction with bilateral cooperation and agreeing to joint military exercises before the 2008 NATO summit.
• Power Grid Connection: Slovenia and Hungary signed an agreement to connect their power grids via a 400 kV power line by 2010.

Baltic States

Estonia

• Corruption Investigation: Former ministers Ester Tuiksoo and Villu Reiljan, along with Toomas Annus, CEO of the largest construction firm, were named suspects in a corruption case involving land swaps and bribes. The suspects deny any wrongdoing.
• Rail Company Restructuring: The proposal to split Eesti Raudtee into three smaller companies was accepted, aiming to increase transparency. However, the trade union opposes the move, fearing bankruptcy.

Latvia

• Democratic Backsliding Concerns: U.S. Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey warned Latvia about potential backsliding on democratic values, citing attempts to manipulate laws governing security services and undermine judicial independence.
• Recent Dismissals and Court Cases: The warning is believed to refer to the dismissal of the head of the anticorruption agency and two high-profile court cases involving digital TV rights and corruption in Ventspils.

Lithuania

• Energy Security Conference: Lithuania hosted an energy security conference in Vilnius, attended by officials from 20 European and Central Asian states, as well as the U.S. and EU. Discussions focused on connecting electricity grids and reducing dependence on Russian gas.
• Transport Corridor Agreement: An agreement was signed between Bulgaria, Macedonia, Albania, and Italy to develop the Pan-European Transport Corridor VIII, which will be presented to the European Commission by year-end.

Southeast Europe

Bulgaria

• EU Reform Treaty: Bulgarian Foreign Minister Ivaylo Kalfin discussed the EU Reform Treaty at the Luxembourg Council meeting. A dispute over the spelling of "euro" in Cyrillic must be resolved before the treaty is approved at the Lisbon summit.
• Transport Corridor VIII: Design and financial estimates for the corridor were finalized, linking TRACECA, the Balkans, and Southern Europe.

Croatia

• UN Security Council Membership: Croatia was elected as a non-permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, which also supports its NATO aspirations.
• Parliamentary Elections: President Stjepan Mesic announced parliamentary elections for 25 November 2007.
• LNG Terminal Project: INA, the state-owned oil and gas company, plans to join the Adria LNG consortium for a terminal on Krk Island, with a projected annual capacity of 10 billion cubic meters by 2012.

Romania

• EU Reform Treaty Discussions: Hans-Gert Poettering, European Parliament President, visited Romania to discuss the EU reform treaty, upcoming elections, and the single vote draft law.
• Moldova Entry Denial: Romanian Foreign Affairs Minister Adrian Cioroianu sought explanations for the denial of three Romanian delegations' entry into Moldova. The Moldovan ambassador expressed regret, and the European Commission demanded clarification.

Key Themes

• Political Dynamics: Electoral shifts, opposition challenges, and referendums highlight political competition and public sentiment in Central and Southeast Europe.
• Economic Challenges: FDI declines, economic forecasts, and infrastructure projects reflect ongoing economic adjustments and strategic planning.
• Energy Security: Cross-border energy projects and efforts to reduce reliance on Russian gas are central to regional development and EU integration.
• Corruption and Governance: Several countries face corruption investigations and concerns over political interference in institutions, underscoring the need for transparency and rule of law.