20260112-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_5页_718kb

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed market update and analysis from the Fixed Income Department of CMBI, focusing on recent bond performance, macroeconomic outlook for China, and new issues in the offshore Asia market. The summary highlights key movements in bond prices, the economic environment, and investment recommendations.

Market Update

• BNKEA T2s were 3-4bps wider this morning, while the rest of the Asian IG space remained largely unchanged.
• NOMURA 7 Perp edged 0.3pt higher.
• VLLPM 29/CHIYBK 32 rose 0.9-1.0pt.
• EHICAR 26/NUFAU 30/SOFTBK 31 were 0.8-1.0pt lower.
• Yankee AT1s showed decent two-way flows, with retail/PB clients buying from institutional sellers.
• LGFVs remained sought after by RMs and retail clients across the credit curve, especially for higher-yielding names, as their yields tightened by 10-15bps.

Top Movers

Top Performers

Top Underperformers

China Economic Outlook

• China's economy is in a mild reflation phase.
• CPI and PPI are expected to reflate from 0.1% and -2.6% in 2025 to 0.7% and -0.5% in 2026.
• CPI rebounded in December due to food and gold jewellery price increases, with food prices driving the rise.
• Core CPI remained elevated at 1.2% YoY, supported by durable goods and gold jewellery.
• PPI showed improvement, with a YoY contraction of -1.9% in December, driven by upstream sectors like mining and raw materials.
• Downstream sectors remained subdued, with consumer goods and durable goods prices flat or declining.
• Deflationary pressure is easing, but the sustainability of reflation is uncertain due to weak end-demand and policy focus on economic rebalancing.

Investment Recommendations

• FRESHK: Initiate buy on the new FRESHK 5.25 01/13/29 and maintain buy on FRESHK 26-28s.
• The new FRESHK 5.25 01/13/29 is trading at 100.1, with a Z-spread of 182bps and YTM of 5.2%.
• FRESHKs offer more attractive risk-return profiles compared to peers like BOCAVI 26-29s.
• The yield pick-up of the new FRESHK 5.25 01/13/29 is approximately 70bps over BOCAVI 4.375 01/12/33.
• FEH's diversified operations and access to low-cost onshore funding are positive factors.

New Issues Overview

Priced Issues

• No specific priced issues were listed in the document.

Pipeline Issues

Market and News Color

• Onshore primary issuances: 98 credit bonds were issued last Friday with RMB56bn, and 454 credit bonds were issued this month with RMB355bn, representing a 25.4% YoY decrease.
• VEDLN: NCLT cleared Talwandi Sabo Power demerger under Vedanta Ltd scheme.
• VNKRLE: Media reported that China Vanke is currently developing a debt restructuring plan at the request of authorities.

Important Disclosures

• CMBIGM has investment banking relationships with the issuers covered in this report.
• The report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
• The information is based on publicly available data and is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness.
• The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities and may not be distributed to third parties without prior consent.
• The author certifies that the views expressed are personal and not influenced by compensation or conflicts of interest.

Disclaimer

• The report is intended for specific recipients and may not be distributed to others without prior written consent.
• In the UK, the report is provided only to persons falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 or Article 49(2) of the Order.
• In the US, the report is distributed only to "major US institutional investors" and not to the general public.
• In Singapore, the report is distributed by CMBISG, an Exempt Financial Adviser, and is subject to Singapore regulations.