20230823-招银国际-Prioritizing_on_long-term_subs_value_7页_1mb

报告摘要

iQIYI (IQ) Company Update - August 2023

Company Performance

iQIYI delivered strong Q2 2023 financial results with revenue up 17% YoY and adjusted net profit exceeding estimates. Membership services showed robust growth, with 154% YoY increase driven by rising pay-paying subscribers.

Key Highlights

Q2 2023 Results: Revenue reached RMB 32.382 billion (up 17% YoY), adjusted net profit was RMB 2.523 billion. Margin performance was a surprise, with adjNP at RMB 595 million.
Subs Growth: Membership services grew 154% YoY, fueled by a 133% YoY increase in pay-paying subscribers (+19% YoY in ARM). Subs retention is noted as a focus area.
Ads Recovery: Ads increased 15% YoY, with performance driven by brand ads and strong content during festivals. Sequential recovery is expected to accelerate in Q3, possibly to +37% YoY.
Upcoming Content: Strong pipeline includes premium dramas such as "The Demon Hunter's Romance" and "Story of Kunning Palace," set to boost long-term subs value in H2 2023.

Financial Forecasts

Analyst lifts FY23-25E earnings forecast by 5-10% to RMB 32.382 billion revenue, with target price at US$86 (unchanged from previous).
Valuation metrics imply 23x/17x FY23/24 EP/E, consistent with Netflix and Mango.

Risks

Potential risks include delays in key content, regulatory uncertainty, slower-than-expected ads recovery due to macro factors, and competition from SFV providers.