20230607-招银国际-绿城服务-02869.HK-Reverse_roadshow_takeaway__Differentiation_leads_to_long-term_value_6页_1mb

Greentown Service (2869 HK) Rating Summary

Key Highlights

• Performance: Company maintains BUY rating with unchanged target price of HK$5.93 (45.1% upside). FY23 revenue growth target of 20-25% YoY faces pressure due to slower 1H23 core operating profit growth (+<=20%) compared to FY23 goals. However, AR recovery and cost controls (e.g., decreased admin expenses YOY) support breakeven operating cash flow in 1H23.

• Strategy: Focus on comprehensive services in large areas, increasing non-residential project contribution to ~50% (vs 43.5% in FY22), targeting differentiation through high-quality residential and non-residential services, including future community development and specialized projects like early education.

• Valuation: 2023E PE of 18.9x, P/B of 1.9x; key metrics like ROE and profitability show mixed trend, with ROE at 8.7% estimated for 2023E.

• Catalysts: Faster-than-expected AR collection and economic recovery may boost full-year targets.

Analyst Certification

• Assumes no conflicts of interest; rating and views are personal and not influenced by compensation tied to recommendations.