益普索-2022年全球预测（英）-37页_465kb

报告摘要

2022 Global Predictions Summary

Core Content Overview

The document presents a survey conducted in October–November 2021, gathering opinions from over 22,000 adults across multiple countries. The survey covers four main areas: Health (COVID-19), Environment, Economy, and Society, as well as Technology and Global Threats. It aims to predict the likelihood of various events or trends in 2022 based on public perception.

1. Health (COVID-19)

Key Prediction:

More than 80% of the world’s population will receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine
- Likelihood: 45% (Global Country Average)
- Countries with high likelihood:
  - China: 68%
  - Singapore: 67%
  - Malaysia: 66%
- Countries with low likelihood:
  - Japan: 36%
  - South Korea: 35%
  - Netherlands: 35%

2. Environment

Key Predictions:

More extreme weather events in my country in 2022 than in 2021
- Likelihood: 45% (Global Country Average)
- Countries with high likelihood:
  - China: 68%
  - Malaysia: 66%
  - South Africa: 68%
- Countries with low likelihood:
  - Japan: 36%
  - South Korea: 35%
  - Netherlands: 35%
People will fly less than they did in 2019
- Likelihood: 42% (Global Country Average)
- Countries with high likelihood:
  - China: 74%
  - India: 60%
  - Russia: 52%
- Countries with low likelihood:
  - United States: 49%
  - Japan: 49%
  - Germany: 49%

3. Economy

Key Predictions:

Prices in my country will increase faster than people's incomes
- Likelihood: 75% (Global Country Average)
- Countries with high likelihood:
  - Russia: 88%
  - Chile: 85%
  - Netherlands: 85%
- Countries with low likelihood:
  - Japan: 36%
  - South Korea: 35%
  - France: 39%
Major stock markets around the world will crash
- Likelihood: 35% (Global Country Average)
- Countries with high likelihood:
  - China: 46%
  - India: 46%
  - Japan: 46%
- Countries with low likelihood:
  - United States: 49%
  - Great Britain: 43%
  - Germany: 49%

4. Society

Key Predictions:

City centers in my country will become busy again as people get back to working in offices on a regular basis
- Likelihood: 71% (Global Country Average)
- Countries with high likelihood:
  - China: 87%
  - Malaysia: 86%
  - Poland: 78%
- Countries with low likelihood:
  - Japan: 66%
  - South Korea: 65%
  - Great Britain: 57%
People in my country will become more tolerant of each other
- Likelihood: 28% (Global Country Average)
- Countries with high likelihood:
  - China: 83%
  - India: 60%
  - Malaysia: 66%
- Countries with low likelihood:
  - Japan: 62%
  - South Korea: 71%
  - France: 81%

5. Technology

Key Predictions:

Many more people will live their lives in virtual worlds
- Likelihood: 57% (Global Country Average)
- Countries with high likelihood:
  - Turkey: 77%
  - Malaysia: 75%
  - Brazil: 74%
- Countries with low likelihood:
  - Japan: 18%
  - United States: 49%
  - Germany: 49%
Strict rules for large technology companies will be introduced by the Government in my country
- Likelihood: 38% (Global Country Average)
- Countries with high likelihood:
  - China: 74%
  - India: 64%
  - Malaysia: 59%
- Countries with low likelihood:
  - Japan: 58%
  - South Korea: 58%
  - United States: 44%

6. Global Threats

Key Predictions:

A natural disaster will hit a major city in my country
- Likelihood: 39% (Global Country Average)
- Countries with high likelihood:
  - Malaysia: 57%
  - Turkey: 52%
  - South Africa: 51%
- Countries with low likelihood:
  - Japan: 30%
  - South Korea: 32%
  - China: 19%
Hackers from a foreign government will cause a global IT shutdown
- Likelihood: 38% (Global Country Average)
- Countries with high likelihood:
  - Turkey: 55%
  - Spain: 51%
  - Israel: 50%
- Countries with low likelihood:
  - Japan: 30%
  - South Korea: 38%
  - China: 19%
Nuclear weapons will be used in a conflict somewhere in the world
- Likelihood: 34% (Global Country Average)
- Countries with high likelihood:
  - Malaysia: 57%
  - Turkey: 52%
  - South Africa: 51%
- Countries with low likelihood:
  - Japan: 27%
  - South Korea: 32%
  - China: 31%
A rogue artificial intelligence program that can't be shut down will cause significant havoc globally
- Likelihood: 27% (Global Country Average)
- Countries with high likelihood:
  - Malaysia: 53%
  - India: 46%
  - Turkey: 43%
- Countries with low likelihood:
  - Japan: 30%
  - South Korea: 33%
  - China: 31%
An asteroid will hit the Earth
- Likelihood: 16% (Global Country Average)
- Countries with high likelihood:
  - China: 31%
  - India: 31%
  - Russia: 31%
- Countries with low likelihood:
  - Japan: 30%
  - South Korea: 32%
  - China: 31%
Aliens will visit Earth
- Likelihood: 14% (Global Country Average)
- Countries with high likelihood:
  - China: 31%
  - India: 31%
  - Russia: 31%
- Countries with low likelihood:
  - Japan: 30%
  - South Korea: 32%
  - China: 31%

Summary of Key Trends

Vaccination: Most countries expect over 80% of the population to receive at least one dose, with China, Singapore, and Malaysia leading in likelihood.
Extreme Weather: A majority of respondents anticipate more extreme weather events in 2022 compared to 2021.
Air Travel: A global decline in air travel is expected, though it is more likely in China and India than in Japan and the United States.
Inflation vs. Income: The majority of respondents believe that prices will rise faster than incomes in their country.
Stock Market Crash: A global stock market crash is less likely than in 2020, with a slight decrease in perceived likelihood.
Return to Office: A significant portion of respondents expect city centers to become busier in 2022 as people return to offices.
Social Tolerance: Most people expect a decrease in social tolerance, with Japan and France showing the highest levels of concern.
Virtual Worlds: A growing number of people believe that more people will live in virtual worlds, especially in Turkey, Malaysia, and Brazil.
Tech Regulation: Many countries expect strict rules for technology companies, particularly in China, India, and Malaysia.
Global Threats: Natural disasters and cyber threats are seen as more likely than nuclear weapons or AI-related events, though all remain relatively low in probability.