2011年-ECB欧洲央行_Integrated_euro_area_accounts_for_the_second_quarter_of_2011_5页_376kb

Box 2 Summary: Integrated Euro Area Accounts for the Second Quarter of 2011

Core Content

The integrated euro area accounts for the second quarter of 2011, released on 28 October 2011, provide a detailed overview of the income, spending, financing, and portfolio decisions of institutional sectors within the euro area. These accounts highlight a pause in the sectoral rebalancing of financial deficits/surpluses that had been observed in previous quarters.

Main Points

• Income and Saving Trends:

  • Nominal gross disposable income growth in the euro area stabilised at an annual rate of 3.5%.
  • The euro area's gross saving increased year on year, driven by a rise in household savings, a reduction in government dissaving, and a return to positive growth in NFCs' retained earnings.
  • The household saving ratio increased slightly to 13.9% (seasonally adjusted), although it remained low, close to pre-crisis levels.

• Net Lending/Net Borrowing:

  • The euro area's net lending/net borrowing declined to 4.8% of GDP, due to subdued gross fixed capital formation and despite robust restocking.
  • On a four-quarter moving sum basis, the euro area's net borrowing improved to 0.7% of GDP.
  • Households' net lending increased, while NFCs' net borrowing stabilised, partially offsetting a deterioration in the government balance.

• External Accounts:

  • The external deficit decreased, reflecting improved net property income (reinvested earnings on foreign direct investment).
  • Net inflows in debt securities increased, while net equity inflows moderated and net outflows in deposits remained elevated.
  • Cross-border transactions continued to expand, reaching €150–€200 billion per quarter, with strong inward flows in debt securities, especially from higher-rated issuers.

• Sectoral Behaviour:

  • Households:
    • Nominal income growth stabilised at 3.0% (year on year), with salaries and mixed income growth levelling off.
    • Real income increased slightly for the second consecutive quarter, following a contraction in end-2010.
    • Net lending increased as saving flows rose and investment remained subdued.
    • Financial asset accumulation was limited, with a shift towards more bank-intermediated funds.
  • Non-Financial Corporations (NFCs):
    • Gross operating surplus growth declined, but net property income growth and slower corporate tax growth led to an increase in savings.
    • Net borrowing stabilised at moderate levels due to slow fixed capital investment and strong restocking.
    • NFCs increased purchases of quoted shares and augmented liquidity buffers (deposits and mutual funds).
    • MFI lending rose significantly, with short-term loans increasing due to restocking needs.
  • Government:
    • The rapid reduction of deficits over the previous two quarters was interrupted, due to weaker revenue growth and lower VAT receipts.
    • Total expenditure growth remained close to zero, despite increases in interest payments.
    • The government deficit fell to 5.5% of GDP on a four-quarter moving sum basis.
    • Debt issuance remained elevated.

• Financial Corporations:

  • Disposable income fell year on year due to higher dividend payments than dividend earnings.
  • Value added and net interest income continued to rise, supported by significant net retained earnings (€40 billion per quarter).
  • Net assets remained high, significantly stronger than those implied by their equity at market value.
  • The gap between capital-to-assets and notional capital-to-assets ratios widened, indicating market concerns over the sustainability of financial institutions' business models.

Key Information

• The re-intermediation trend observed in the first quarter of 2011 continued, with NFCs increasingly relying on MFI funding for external financing.
• Deleveraging trends remained in place, with additions to financial corporations' balance sheets modest at around €200 billion per quarter (excluding interbank transactions), compared to €1 trillion during the leverage boom.
• Holding gains on non-financial assets (primarily real estate) and financial assets (mainly shares) contributed to the growth in households' net worth, though financial asset gains remained subdued.
• The portfolio shift towards bank-intermediated funds was evident, with households preferring more intermediated financial products.

Conclusion

The second quarter of 2011 marked a period of relative stability and partial reversal of previous sectoral trends. While the euro area's income growth remained robust, the pace of saving and the reduction of deficits slowed. The financial sector continued to experience significant holding gains and a shift in portfolio preferences, indicating a gradual return to more stable and intermediated financial flows.