2012年-ECB欧洲央行_Integrated_euro_area_accounts_for_the_second_quarter_of_2012_6页_683kb

Box 4: Integrated Euro Area Accounts for the Second Quarter of 2012

Core Content

The integrated euro area accounts for the second quarter of 2012 reveal a contraction in economic activity, with significant impacts on the income, spending, and financing behavior of institutional sectors. The data, released on 30 October 2012, highlights the following key aspects:

• Economic Activity: The euro area experienced a notable decline in economic activity, reflected in reduced income growth and a significant drop in gross capital formation.
• Households: Households faced a sharp decline in real income, leading to a record low saving ratio and a significant decrease in net wealth due to falling house and equity prices.
• Non-Financial Corporations (NFCs): NFCs saw a further decline in profit margins and retained earnings, but they have not returned to their traditional net borrowing position due to reduced fixed investment and destocking.
• Government: Government deficits continued to fall, albeit at a slower pace, with current revenues growing more slowly and total expenditure remaining contained.
• Financial Corporations: Financial corporations' net wealth increased, driven by higher retained earnings and equity issuance, despite losses on equity holdings and government debt.

Main Views

Income and Net Lending/Net Borrowing

• The annual growth rate of nominal gross disposable income in the euro area declined from 1.8% in Q1 to 0.4% in Q2.
• Gross saving contracted due to slower income growth compared to total consumption.
• The euro area's net lending/net borrowing improved, turning into a surplus of 0.3% of GDP on a four-quarter basis.
• Households reduced net lending as savings fell faster than investment.
• NFCs shifted to slight net lending, mainly due to destocking.
• Government continued to reduce deficits, contributing to the overall improvement in the net lending position.

Institutional Sector Behavior

• Households experienced a 0.2% decline in nominal income, with real income down 2.2% year-on-year.
• The negative fiscal drag remained at 0.7 percentage points, reducing income growth.
• Households shifted investment portfolios towards monetary assets and away from non-bank liabilities.
• NFCs saw a further contraction in gross operating surplus and a drop in profit margins to 38.1%.
• Despite a decline in value added, intra-sector lending remained resilient, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises.
• Government revenues grew more slowly, especially from VAT and corporate taxes, while total expenditure remained close to 1% growth.
• Financial Corporations saw an increase in retained earnings and net assets, driven by higher net dividends and equity issuance.

Key Information

Balance Sheet Dynamics

• Households' Net Worth: Fell by 9.6% of income, primarily due to losses on non-financial assets (housing, equity) and to a lesser extent on financial assets.
• Financial Corporations' Net Worth: Increased due to gains on financial assets and the depreciation of the euro leading to gains on foreign currency-denominated assets.
• NFCs' Leverage: The reduction in leverage came to a halt due to falling equity prices and portfolio losses.
• Cross-Border Flows: Remained subdued, but non-residents resumed investment in euro area government debt securities.

Charts

• Chart A: Shows the contribution of each sector to the euro area's gross disposable income, with annual percentage changes.
• Chart B: Displays the net lending/net borrowing of the euro area as a percentage of GDP, with four-quarter moving sums.
• Chart C: Illustrates the change in households' nominal gross disposable income, including contributions from net social benefits, direct taxes, and other income components.
• Chart D: Depicts the relationship between household income, consumption, and the saving ratio, highlighting the decline in the saving ratio.
• Chart E: Represents NFCs' saving, capital investment, and net lending/net borrowing, showing the impact of destocking.
• Chart F: Highlights loans granted by NFCs and trade credit, alongside the annual growth rate of value added.
• Chart G: Shows the change in households' net worth, emphasizing the impact of net saving and asset losses.
• Chart H: Depicts gains and losses in financial corporations' asset holdings, including equity and debt securities.

Conclusion

The second quarter of 2012 marked a period of economic contraction in the euro area, with households and NFCs facing significant challenges. Despite this, the euro area's net lending/net borrowing improved, driven by financial corporations and a shift in NFCs' behavior. The government continued its deficit reduction, while financial corporations maintained a more stable position. Overall, the data underscores the resilience of certain sectors and the ongoing challenges in others, particularly in the context of a weak economic environment.