2014年-ECB欧洲央行_Integrated_euro_area_accounts_for_the_fourth_quarter_of_2013_6页_302kb

Box 3 Summary: Integrated Euro Area Accounts for the Fourth Quarter of 2013

Core Content

The Integrated Euro Area Accounts for the Fourth Quarter of 2013, released on 30 April 2014, provide a comprehensive overview of the income, spending, financing, and portfolio decisions of institutional sectors in the euro area. The report highlights a new historical high in the euro area external surplus, driven by weak internal demand and improvements in domestic sector balances, particularly a reduction in the government deficit.

Key Economic Indicators

• Nominal Gross Disposable Income: Increased to 1.6% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in real GDP growth.
• Household Income Growth: Accelerated to 1.5% year-on-year, driven by higher compensation of employees and property income, and lower direct taxes and net social benefits received.
• Real Income Growth: Returned to positive growth for the first time since early 2010.
• Household Saving Ratio: Increased marginally to 13.1% in seasonally adjusted terms.
• Government Deficit: Declined to 3.0% of GDP from 3.5% in the previous quarter, mainly due to a drop in capital transfers to banks.
• Net Lending of the Euro Area: Reached 2.2% of GDP, the highest level since the euro's launch, driven by a decline in the government deficit and continued net lending by NFCs.
• Non-Financial Corporations (NFCs):
  • Fixed Capital Expenditure: Returned to positive growth at 1.5% year-on-year, the first time since early 2012.
  • Retained Earnings: Increased further, contributing to a net lending position.
  • Business Margins: Rose slightly from very low levels, indicating improved profitability.
  • Debt-to-Assets Ratio: Continued to decline due to net redemptions in corporate loans and holding gains on equity.
  • Liquidity Buffers: Reached €2.9 trillion.
• Financial Corporations:
  • Gross Entrepreneurial Income: Recorded 1.8% annual growth for the first time since end-2011.
  • Capital Ratios: Increased to high levels, supported by holding gains on securities, retained earnings, and deleveraging.
  • Net Assets-to-Assets Ratio: Increased by 0.7 percentage points, with €150 billion in unquoted equity issuance contributing significantly.
  • Financial Investment Growth: Decelerated further to a new record low.

Indebtedness and Leverage

• Gross Debt-to-GDP Ratios: Remained at high levels for all sectors, though continued to decline slightly across private sectors.
• Leverage Measures:
  • Debt-to-Assets Ratios: Fell in the private sectors, with NFCs and households showing the most significant declines.
  • Net Wealth Ratios: Improved for households, driven by higher net savings and equity gains that offset housing price declines.
  • Government Sector Leverage: Increased marginally.
• Household Net Worth: Rose year-on-year by 3.7% of income, with net savings at 6.8% and holding gains at 8.3% outweighing holding losses on non-financial assets (housing: -11.3% of income).

Investment and Financing

• Capital Formation: Stabilised, with a moderate decline in financial corporations' investment.
• Inventories: Contributed negatively to nominal growth due to moderate destocking.
• Financing Sources:
  • Non-Resident Investment: Continued to increase, indicating improved investor confidence.
  • NFC Financing: Increased through bond and stock markets, while bank lending remained weak.
  • Loans from Foreign Entities: Rose strongly to €46 billion.
  • Intra-Sector Lending: Remained subdued, especially for trade credits important to SMEs.

External Position

• Net External Asset Position: Improved moderately, supported by the positive net lending position and valuation losses from the appreciation of the euro.

Conclusion

The fourth quarter of 2013 marked a turning point in the euro area's economic performance, with improved domestic sector balances, recovery in income growth, and moderate improvements in the external surplus. While government deficit continued to shrink, household and NFC net lending improved, and financial corporations showed signs of recovery in profitability and capital ratios, market distrust still affected stock market valuations. The overall financial situation of the euro area showed favourable trends, though high debt levels and low business margins remain areas of concern.