2023-03-14-全球发展中心-到2050年的未来全球增长情景（英）_34页_513kb

Global Growth Scenarios to 2050

Charles Kenny and Zack Gehan

Purpose and Method:
Using a simple regression model based on historical income, demographics, education, and climate data, the authors projected GDP per capita for 2050. Robustness checks were applied by varying input parameters (e.g., education, population). Forecast error terms generated high and low bounds for country outcomes.

Key Findings:

1. Convergence Trends:

   • Growth rates in high-income and upper-middle-income countries will slow despite global income convergence.
   • Education is a convergence driver, while demographic aging (especially in wealthy nations) will hinder growth.

2. Climate Change Impact:

   • Climate change (e.g., temperature) will significantly impact growth in poorer countries but is unlikely to dominate global trends by 2050.

3. Voting Power Shifts:

   • IMF and World Bank voting power is expected to shift away from DAC (Developed Asian and Pacific Countries) nations by 2050, with China gaining influence. The US may lose veto power.

4. Regional Inequalities:

   • Africa and low-income countries may lag, while Asia and countries like China could emerge as economic leaders.

5. Poverty Reduction:

   • $2.15/day poverty could practically disappear by 2050, though extreme regional disparities persist.

6. Energy and Military Spending:

   • Global electricity consumption is projected to double by 2050, with the US remaining the largest spender but with diminished global influence.

Robustness:
Scenarios showed the conclusion withstands variations in inputs like education growth, population trends, and climate pathways. Policy choices (e.g., globalization, carbon policies) are crucial for future outcomes.

Conclusion:
Demographic shifts and climate change will shape growth, with developed nations likely losing global dominance unless policies accelerate adaptation and convergence.