未来能源研究所-大规模消除二氧化碳的政策激励：分析与建议（英）-2024.2-62页_1mb

Report Summary: Policy Incentives to Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal

Introduction and Background

• Analyzes the urgent need for large-scale CO₂ removal (CDR) to achieve net-zero GHG emissions, complementing emissions reductions.
• Highlights the technological, economic, social, and environmental challenges of scaling up CDR.
• Current U.S. policies primarily support land-based CDR (e.g., afforestation/reforestation) and engineered CDR (e.g., DACCS, BECCS) with targeted incentives like tax credits (45Q) and R&D funding, but gaps remain for scaling and technological maturity.

Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies

• Technological Options:
  • Conventional Land-Based: Afforestation, Reorestation (ARI); Enhanced Weathering (EW); Biochar (BC); Novel Approaches: Bioenergy with CCS (BEC/BEC), Direct Air Capture (DAC), etc.
  • Novel Technologies: DAC, BECCS, etc., are still costly and immature but offer high potential for large-scale deployment if costs decrease.
• Cost Estimates:
  • ARI: $10–$100/tCO₂
  • DAC: $90–$600/tCO₂
  • BECCS: $80–$200/tCO₂
  • Novel CDR methods range widely and depend on scale and innovation.

Policy Analysis Framework

• Core Principles:
  1. Cost-Effectiveness: Minimize overall costs while achieving climate goals.
  2. Technology Neutrality: Reward performance, not specific technologies.
  3. Proper Financing: Address the challenge of funding sufficient CDR, especially through early-stage RD&D.
  4. Attention to Co-Benefits: Manage environmental and equity implications.
• Cross-Cutting Challenges:
  • Verification issues with MRV (permanence, additionality, leakage).
  • Balancing regulatory frameworks across land, transport, storage, and innovation phases.

Current U.S. Policies

• Subsidies and Tax Credits:
  • $180/tCO₂ credit under 45Q for DAC with storage, providing incentives but limited by cost and accessibility.
  • USDA programs for afforestation and forest carbon management, boosted by IRA’s cost-sharing.
• RD&D:
  • Supply-push (grants, prizes) and demand-pull (contracts for difference, AMC) mechanisms are used, but need better sequencing by technology readiness level (TRL).
• Policy Gaps:
  • Insufficient scaling, siting challenges for transport/storage, MRV inconsistencies, equity concerns, and underfunding for RD&D compared to ER policies.

Policy Recommendations

Short-Term On-Ramp Policies

• Conventional Land-Based CDR: Aggressive afforestation incentives via dedicated reserves, leveraging natural sinks.
• Engineered CDR:
  • Expand RD&D for DAC and BECCS, using demand-pull mechanisms (AMCs, government procurement).
  • Improve transport infrastructure for CO₂ pipelines with federal oversight and fair pricing rules.
• Equity: Strengthen community benefits plans under Justice40, address siting issues and air pollution.

Mid-Term Net-Zero Policy Framework

• Carbon Pricing/Trading with CDR (CAT+, CP+): Link ER and CDR in cap-and-trade to minimize costs and incentivize innovation.
• Avoid Over-Regulation: Tailor technologies and incentives to cost-effectiveness, avoid rigid mandates.
• Phased Approaches: Encourage deployment through sequencing of policies, with state/federal coordination.

Long-Term Actions

• CDR Beyond Net Zero: Address overshooting scenarios with public procurement and robust RD&D for novel technologies.
• Life Cycle Analysis: Mandate assessments to account for emissions from supporting infrastructure (energy use, water, feedstock).

Conclusions

• CDR is essential for achieving net zero, especially as emissions reduction scales face barriers.
• Policies must evolve: start with targeted subsidies and RD&D, shift to market-based mechanisms (CAT+/CP+), and ensure equitable, safe deployment.
• The U.S. should lead in CDR due to its technological capacity, wealth, and existing policy tools.

Key Goals

• Balance ER and CDR to minimize costs.
• Promote innovation while maintaining private sector finance.
• Distribute costs equitably and address environmental justice.