2025及未来支付_探索支付领域的未来趋势（英）_29页_4mb

PwC Payments: Navigating the Payments Matrix

Introduction

Peter C. Pollini highlights the financial services industry's significant transformation, driven by digitization. Electronic payments are at the center of this evolution. Cashless transactions are projected to more than triple by 2030, with Asia-Pacific growing the fastest. Payments are crucial for fostering inclusion, developing digital economies, and driving innovation, while serving as a stable backbone for global economies.

Key Trends

Cashless Payments Growth

• Cashless transactions projected to increase from ~1tn in 2020 to ~1.9tn in 2025 and almost 3tn by 2030.
• Asia-Pacific, Africa, and Europe are leading in growth.
• By 2030, cashless transactions per capita could be double to triple current levels.

Digital Currencies

• 60% of central banks are exploring CBDCs; 14% conducting pilot tests.
• CBDCs could replace account-based payments if successful.
• Concerns about private cryptocurrencies undermining monetary policy.

Digital Wallets

• Mobile payments continue growing (23% CAGR from 2019–2024).
• QR code, open banking, and super-app proliferation drive adoption.
• Digital wallets will account for >50% of e-commerce payments by 2024.

Battle of the Rails

• Competition between card-based and account-based payments (e.g., instant payments).
• Open banking forces stronger domestic payment infrastructure.
• Players like Visa and Mastercard pivot to account-to-account payments.

Cross-Border Payments

• Efforts to accelerate instant, low-cost cross-border payments using ISO 20022.
• Regional solutions (e.g., P27 in Nordic countries) and global non-bank solutions via cryptocurrency may emerge.

Financial Crime

• Security, compliance, and data privacy are top concerns for banks and fintechs.
• Fraud-as-a-service is growing as payments become more digital.
• Machine learning and AI are crucial for fraud detection.

Strategic Actions: The Four Rs Framework

Repair

• Prevent credit risk, adjust pricing, limit free offerings.
• Consolidate processing volumes and optimize partner sourcing.

Rethink

• Positioning in emerging markets, role with regulators, and offerings.
• Revise product structures, explore joint offerings with non-traditional players.

Reconfigure

• Upgrade infrastructure to leverage cloud, AI, and interoperability.
• Integrate card- and account-based rails, develop fraud detection systems.

Report

• Enhance transparency, measure contributions to financial inclusion, and track carbon emissions reductions. Report on fraud and new payment roles.

Regional Trends

Europe

• Focus on instant payments (SEPA, RTP), CBDCs, and non-bank providers.
• Battle for payment rails; competition with open banking.

North America

• Leading in integrated payments; slower shift to alternatives due to credit legacy.
• RTP modernization efforts (Real Time Rail, FedNow).

Africa

• Prioritizing inclusion and mobile money (e.g., Mama Money, GhIPSS).
• Regulatory initiatives to drive instant payments and cross-border money transfers.

Asia-Pacific

• India's digital payments growth ("UPI," "BBPS").
• China testing its digital renminbi; concerns in India about CBDC legislation.

Conclusion

Payments can lead in financial services, fostering inclusion and innovation. Stakeholders must adapt to digitization, manage risks, and leverage data to stay relevant. Conquering the "battle for rails," standardizing cross-border payments, and improving security are key.