波士顿咨询-创建一个更加数字化，弹性的银行（英文）-2019.3-25页_1mb

Summary of "GLOBAL RISK 2019: Creating a More Digital, Resilient Bank"

Core Content

This report from Boston Consulting Group (BCG) explores the evolving landscape of the global banking industry, focusing on the challenges and opportunities posed by digital transformation and regulatory changes. It outlines the current state of economic profitability in major banking regions and highlights the need for banks to adapt to a rapidly changing environment.

Main Points

Economic Profitability Trends

• Global Economic Profit (EP): EP has declined over the past few years, reaching levels not seen since 2013.
• Regional Performance:
  • Europe: NPL rates and low interest income have kept EP negative, despite slight improvements in some areas.
  • North America: EP has remained relatively stable, with a small decline in 2017 due to rising costs.
  • Asia-Pacific: EP has dropped significantly, more than halving from 2014 to 2017.
  • South America and Middle East and Africa: These regions have shown healthier EP growth, with the latter achieving a 15-basis-point increase in 2017.

Key Drivers of Decline

• Rising Risk and Operating Costs: These have become the most significant encumbrances on banks' profitability.
• Digital Disruption: Innovations like AI, machine learning, and cloud computing are reshaping the industry.
• Regulatory Pressures: Compliance and reporting requirements are increasing, affecting cost structures and operational efficiency.

Digital Transformation and Risk/Treasury Functions

Digital Risk

• Banks must evolve their risk management to handle new digital risks and maintain resilience.
• Real-time data and predictive analytics are essential for managing these risks effectively.
• Integration of risk and treasury functions is necessary to improve decision-making and balance sheet management.

Digital Treasury

• Treasury functions must also adapt to the digital age, leveraging technology to enhance efficiency and strategic value.
• End-to-end automation and integrated balance sheet management are key to achieving this.

Regulatory Landscape

Financial Stability

• Basel III Revisions: Completed in Europe, with IFRS 9 also introduced.
• TRIM Review: The EU continues to refine internal risk models to ensure consistency and reliability.
• US Approach: Focuses on stress testing and capital adequacy, with mandatory CCAR reports for systemically important banks.

Prudent Operations

• Penalties: Banks have paid over $372 billion in penalties since 2009, with 2018 seeing a $27 billion increase.
• Regulatory Focus: Includes AML, data privacy, and KYC requirements.
• GDPR and State-Level Regulations: GDPR has been implemented in Europe, while the US has state-level equivalents like the California Consumer Privacy Act.

Resolution Frameworks

• US Resolution Plans: Banks must develop detailed resolution strategies, especially those with significant retail deposits.
• EU Resolution: The Single Resolution Board (SRB) is finalizing resolution plans and improving oversight.
• Challenges: Despite progress, the effectiveness of resolution mechanisms is still under scrutiny, as retail money losses can occur during bail-ins.

Conclusion

• Inflection Point: Banks are at a turning point where they must lead the way in transformation.
• Digital Strategy: Embracing digital tools is crucial for efficiency, speed, and strategic value.
• Regulatory Adaptation: Regulators are pushing for more transparency, trust, and innovation, while banks must navigate complex compliance landscapes.

Key Information

• Digitization: Is becoming a critical lever for improving efficiency and competitiveness.
• Regulatory Changes: Include enhanced AML standards, new reference rates (like SOFR), and evolving KYC practices.
• Cost Management: Operating and risk costs are major challenges, especially in Europe and Asia-Pacific.
• Technological Impact: Expected to reshape the banking ecosystem, with both opportunities and risks for institutions.

Recommendations

• Banks should invest in digital transformation to enhance agility and resilience.
• Collaboration with fintechs and the use of new technologies can help reduce costs and improve compliance.
• Regulatory alignment and proactive adaptation to new standards are essential for long-term stability and growth.