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Afghanistan: Campaign Trends Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the insurgency in Afghanistan and the strategic efforts by ISAF and the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) during the period leading up to 2010. It outlines the geographical expansion of the insurgency, the impact of security incidents, the role of the Taliban, and the challenges and progress in governance and socio-economic development.

Key Trends and Statistics

• Geographical Expansion: The insurgency has expanded significantly, particularly in the South and East of Afghanistan, where it has gained momentum.
• Security Incidents:
  • In 2007, 793 KIA and 2086 WIA were reported from 66 suicide attacks.
  • In 2009, 760 KIA and 875 WIA were reported from 83 other IED attacks.
  • By October 2009, there were 39 attacks in a 30-day period.
  • 71% of security incidents occurred in 10% of the districts.
• Insurgent Influence:
  • Insurgents have limited freedom of movement for friendly forces.
  • Infrastructure and economic development are disrupted.
  • Corruption is a significant issue, with 83% of Afghans stating it affects their daily lives.
  • Perceptions of the Afghan government (GIRoA) are negative in some areas, but there is a growing trend of positive attitudes.

Strategic Campaign Plan

• Strategic Main Effort: Grow the ANSF.
• Operational Main Effort: Focus on areas like Central Helmand, Kandahar, and the South.
• Key Terrain Districts: 81 districts identified as critical for security and governance.
• Area of Interest Districts: 41 districts where the coalition aims to influence the population.
• Economic Corridor: Security along contiguous economic corridors is essential for development and population support.

Campaign Objectives

• Protect the Population: Reduce civilian casualties and ensure security in high-density areas.
• Enable ANSF: Accelerate and expand indigenous security force capacity through training and partnerships.
• Neutralize Malign Influence: Improve governance and reduce corruption.
• Support Socio-Economic Development: Create conditions for community-based development and economic opportunities.

Challenges and Progress

• ANSF Growth:
  • Promising growth, but challenges remain in attrition and retention.
  • The ANP (Afghan National Police) attrition is a concern, with leader development and officer shortages.
  • The ANA (Afghan National Army) quality is improving.
• GIRoA Capacity:
  • Improvement in ministerial capacity is projected to be self-sustaining by 2012.
  • Confidence in the national administration increased to 45% by March 2010.
• Corruption and Governance:
  • 29% of Afghans believe their president is corrupt, while 34% believe their district governor is corrupt.
  • Despite this, confidence in the government reached a new high.
  • Governance reforms are a main effort, with a focus on empowering local leaders and improving basic services.

Military Operations and Coordination

• Afghan-Pakistan Military Operations (March 2010):
  • PAKMIL forces deployed over 130,000 troops to the FATA and NWFP.
  • Over 100,000 troops moved from the eastern border with India.
• Coordination:
  • Operational coordination occurs across the country, with frequent tactical-level efforts.
  • AQ (Al-Qaeda) provides facilitation, training, and some funding, relying on insurgent safe havens in Pakistan.

Timeline and Conditions

• Realistic Campaign Timeline:
  • Success requires sustained effort beyond 2010 or 2011.
  • Demonstrable stabilization is expected by mid-2011.
  • A major transition to ANSF should not begin until the force is ready, likely late 2012.
  • US troop reduction must be conditions-based.
  • Foreign aid and funding for ANSF are likely needed beyond 2015.

Conclusion

The insurgency in Afghanistan is a complex and resilient challenge, with significant geographical and socio-political dimensions. The campaign strategy emphasizes population protection, ANSF growth, governance improvement, and socio-economic development. While progress is evident, the threat remains substantial, requiring a long-term, coordinated effort to achieve stability and popular support.