战略与国际研究中心-Public-Opinion-Trends-in-Afghanistan_88页_2mb

Summary of Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan (ABC News/BBC/ARD Poll, 2009)

Core Content

This document presents the findings of the ABC News/BBC/ARD poll conducted in Afghanistan from December 30, 2008 to January 12, 2009, focusing on public opinion and perception of security, governance, and development. The poll includes data from 1,534 interviews across the country, with oversampling in key regions such as Balkh, Helmand, Herat, Kandahar, Kunduz, Logar, Nangarhar, and Wardak. It highlights the challenges and sentiments of the Afghan population, especially in the context of ongoing conflict and foreign involvement.

Main Points and Key Findings

1. Field Methodology and Demographics

• Methodology: The survey used a stratified random sampling approach, with 194 sampling points, covering both urban and rural areas. Interviews were conducted using a PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) method to districts and SRS (Simple Random Sampling) at the settlement level.
• Demographics:
  • 48% of respondents are illiterate; 59% have no formal education.
  • 93% have a monthly income below $300, with 54% below $100.
  • 55% have no electricity access; 15% own a generator, 17% share one, and 13% have power lines.
  • 31% own a mobile phone, showing a steady increase in access.
  • 72% of men are employed, compared to 5% of women; most are farmers, laborers, or artisans.
  • 56% of Afghans are under 35, compared to 31% in the U.S.

2. Public Sentiment on Security and Development

• Security: The majority of respondents felt that security is poor in their areas, with many expressing fear due to the Taliban’s resurgence and frequent attacks.
• Development: There is a lack of development, with 55% reporting no electricity and 93% with low income. Many areas are affected by snow blockages, leading to health and emergency access issues.
• Taliban Activity: There is significant concern over the Taliban's growing strength, with attacks reported in various provinces, including Kabul, Kandahar, and Bamiyan. The Taliban is seen as a major threat, with 60% of respondents blaming them for violence.
• Local Conditions: Most areas are rated as poor in terms of development, and reconstruction efforts are not widely perceived as effective or beneficial. Corruption is a major issue, with many feeling that foreign aid is not reaching them.

3. Views on U.S./NATO/ISAF Forces

• Negative Perception: The U.S. and NATO forces are generally viewed negatively, especially in Southwest and East regions. The presence of foreign forces is often seen as a source of instability.
• Impact of Air Strikes: Air attacks by U.S./NATO/ISAF forces are not well-received, with many people dissatisfied with the impact on daily life.
• Support for Coalition Forces: Local support for coalition forces is low, with many feeling that these forces are not helping but rather creating problems.

4. Security and Development Correlation

• A regression model was used to analyze the influence of security and development on public opinion.
• Both security and development are poor in most regions, and this has a negative impact on public perception of the "right direction" and governance performance.
• Security is a more significant factor than development in shaping public opinion, with higher ratings of security leading to more positive views of the U.S. and provincial governments.

5. Taliban and Opium Cultivation

• The Taliban is seen as a major threat, with increased activity reported in several provinces.
• Opium cultivation is unacceptable in most areas, with only a few exceptions where it is seen as a last resort for livelihood.

6. Regional Variations

• Kabul: Security is poor, and there is widespread dissatisfaction with coalition forces.
• Herat: Reconstruction is ongoing, but there are concerns about police collaboration with the Taliban.
• Kandahar: Suburban areas lack government control, and there is concern over security.
• Nimroz: The Taliban is active, and security is a major concern.
• Ghazni: Reconstruction is increasing, but security and economic issues persist.
• Paktika: High prices for food and fuel are a major complaint.
• Badghis: Voter registration is underway, with positive initial responses.
• Farah: Youth migration to Iran is increasing due to security concerns and economic hardship.

7. Political and Social Perceptions

• National Identity: A significant portion of the population is not strongly identified with the national government.
• Trust in Government: Low trust in both central and provincial governments, with corruption being a key factor.
• Expectations for the Future: Only 20% of respondents expect life to improve in the next year, indicating low optimism about the future.

8. Taliban Favorability and Negotiations

• Taliban favorability is low, but their resurgence is noted in many areas.
• Negotiations with the Taliban are seen as necessary, but there are preconditions for success, such as improving security and development.

Conclusion

The poll underscores the deep-seated challenges facing Afghanistan, including poor security, lack of development, and widespread corruption. While reconstruction efforts are ongoing, they are not effectively addressing the needs of the population. The Taliban’s growing strength and negative perception of foreign forces indicate ongoing instability and lack of public support for the current government and coalition presence. The regression analysis further highlights that security is a critical determinant of public sentiment, with development playing a supporting role. The overall sentiment is negative, with low trust in governance and limited optimism for the future.