20151207-穆迪服务-Credit_Outlook_44页_2mb

报告摘要

Credit Outlook Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of credit implications of various corporate, infrastructure, bank, and sovereign events as of December 7, 2015. It includes rating changes, research highlights, and news analysis from Moody's Investors Service.

Main Points and Key Information

Corporates

Mattress Firm's Acquisition of Sleepy's: Credit negative due to increased financial leverage and integration risks. The deal will raise lease-adjusted debt/EBITDA to slightly above 5x. It is expected to increase store base and revenue by over 40% and $3.6 billion respectively. The acquisition is expected to provide strategic benefits, but the credit impact is negative.
Kinder Morgan's Purchase of NGPL Stake: Credit negative as it will increase business risk and leverage for Kinder Morgan. NGPL is a distressed company with a debt/EBITDA ratio above 10x. The deal may lead to additional debt funding and higher leverage for KMI.
Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG) Tender Offer: Credit positive as the tender will reduce leverage and allow strategic initiatives. OSG is expected to retire $226 million of its holding company debt, with debt/EBITDA dropping to 3.0x. The company is in a good liquidity position with over $400 million in consolidated cash.
Alstom's Major Contracts in India: Credit positive due to increased order book and revenue exposure to Asia. The contracts are expected to bolster future earnings and provide a strong position in India's growing railway market.
Progroup's Acquisition of CHP Plant: Credit positive for JH-Holding GmbH. The acquisition will reduce energy costs and improve EBITDA and cash flow. The deal is expected to be financed with a mix of cash and debt.
Evergrande's Acquisition Plan: Credit negative as it will reduce liquidity and maintain high leverage. Evergrande plans to pay for acquisitions with cash and incremental debt, with the debt leverage expected to remain in the 52%-57% range over the next 12-18 months.
JX Holdings and TonenGeneral Merger: Credit positive for both companies. The merger will reduce competition, optimize operations, and improve profitability. It also enhances strategic importance in Japan's energy security policy.

Infrastructure

China Three Gorges' Brazil Hydropower Projects: Credit negative due to increased leverage. The acquisition is expected to be debt-funded, raising CTG's debt/capitalization and debt/EBITDA ratios. The projects are in a challenging operating environment in Brazil due to drought and weak demand.
MTRC's Express Rail Link Agreement: Credit negative as it will result in a special dividend fully funded by debt and bear additional project cost overruns. The deal will increase MTRC's debt and reduce liquidity and debt coverage ratios.

Banks

US Federal Reserve's Narrower Emergency Lending Authority: Credit negative for US banks as it limits liquidity support during financial stress, increasing the risk of instability.
Empresas ICA's Missed Interest Payment: Credit negative for Mexican banks due to the missed payment, which may indicate financial distress.
Rabobank's New Governance Structure: Credit positive as it enhances governance and operational efficiency.
Credit Mutuel's Acquisition of GE Capital's Leasing and Factoring Business: Credit positive for Credit Mutuel, as it expands its business offerings and strengthens its position in the market.
Malaysian Banks' Deteriorating Profitability: Credit negative as it may lead to capital pressures.

Sovereigns and Sub-sovereigns

Argentina's Increased Fiscal Pressure: Credit negative due to the loss of central government revenues, which could affect the country's fiscal health.
Argentina's Provinces: Credit positive as they will benefit from increased federal government transfers.

US Public Finance

Detroit's Improved Economic and Fiscal Health: Positive as the city's financial condition has improved a year after bankruptcy.
Long-Term Transportation Funding Act: Credit positive for GARVEEs and transit agencies, as it provides long-term funding stability.
Florida's Storm-Free Years: Credit positive as it boosts claims-paying resources for hurricane-related catastrophes.

Securitization

American Residential Properties Merger: Credit positive for ARP's single-family rental securitization, as the merger is expected to provide synergies and enhance the business.

Rating Changes

Upgraded: inVentiv Health, Cesky Aeroholding, Orkuveita Reykjaviku, Cathay Life Insurance, Cathay Financial Holdings.
Downgraded: Kraton Performance Polymers, China Oil and Gas Group, Banco BTG Pactual, BSI, RCS Capital.

Research Highlights

Moody's published reports on a wide range of topics including US casinos, French telecoms, US consumer durables, US packaging, US corporate liquidity, EMEA speculative grade corporates, UK water sector, Asia-Pacific utilities, UK banks, Vietnamese banks, Australian banks, global financial guarantors, US P&C insurers, Canadian life insurers, Colombian insurers, global environmental risk, India, El Salvador, China, Canadian and Brazilian regional/local governments, Yarlington Housing Group, and Asian securitization and covered bonds.