2013年-世界发展银行全球_Tanzania_Economic_Update___Opening_the_Gates_-_How_the_Port_of_Dar_es_Salaam_Can_Transform_Tanzania_76页_8mb

Tanzania Economic Update Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the current state of Tanzania's economy and highlights the critical need to modernize the Port of Dar es Salaam to enhance economic performance and regional integration. It emphasizes the importance of improving the business environment, human capital, and public administration to support sustainable growth. The analysis also underscores the role of trade openness and the impact of high transport costs on economic competitiveness.

Main Points

Economic Performance

• Growth: Tanzania has maintained strong and consistent economic growth of around 7% annually since 2008, with a GDP growth rate of 6.9% in 2012, close to the historical average.
• Stability: The economy has shown less volatility compared to Kenya and Uganda, supported by resilient domestic demand and limited exposure to external shocks.
• Drivers of Growth: Five key sectors—communications, financial services, construction, manufacturing, and retail—have been the main contributors to GDP growth, accounting for almost 60% of the total growth since 2008.
• Inflation: Inflation has declined to 9.8% in March 2013, but remains higher than in Uganda and Kenya. Local food prices are significantly higher than in other developing countries, affecting the poorest citizens.
• Fiscal Policy: The fiscal deficit has increased, with the government failing to meet its revenue targets. TANESCO's financial crisis has added to the pressure on public finances.
• Current Account: The current account deficit has improved due to increased exports, but there has been a shift toward non-concessional borrowing, raising concerns about debt sustainability.

Trade and Port Efficiency

• Port Importance: Approximately 90% of Tanzania's international trade passes through the Port of Dar es Salaam, which also serves as a gateway for six landlocked countries.
• Port Inefficiency: The port is significantly less efficient than Mombasa, with delays in anchorage and dwell time (time to unload, clear, and transport goods) costing the economy around USD 1.8 billion annually.
• Cost Implications: The inefficiency of the port leads to higher costs for importers and exporters, with port fees in Dar es Salaam being 74% higher than in Mombasa.
• Regional Impact: If Dar es Salaam's efficiency were to match Mombasa's, Tanzania and its neighbors could gain up to USD 2.6 billion per year.

Key Recommendations

• Awareness: Increase awareness among end-users of the costs associated with port inefficiency.
• Bargaining Power: Reduce the monopolistic or bargaining power of those currently benefiting from the inefficient status quo.
• Corruption: Address corruption, which is perceived as the most severe constraint to business operations.
• Reform Motivation: Motivate reformers and improve coordination between stakeholders to implement efficiency-enhancing measures.

Political and Institutional Context

• Government Initiative: The Government has launched the 'Big Results, Now!' initiative, which places the Port of Dar es Salaam at the center of its agenda.
• Reform Resistance: The slow implementation of reforms is due to unequal bargaining power between beneficiaries and losers of the current system.
• Incentive Structures: Perverse incentive structures reward inefficiency and discourage necessary improvements.
• Future Outlook: The economy is expected to grow at 7% for the next few years, but long-term growth will require improvements in policy areas such as the business environment, human development, and government effectiveness.

Conclusion

• The transformation of the Port of Dar es Salaam is essential for Tanzania to achieve faster and more equitable growth.
• The inefficiencies of the port are a major constraint, with significant economic and regional costs.
• Political willingness to reform exists, but the implementation of reforms must be accelerated to ensure long-term economic benefits.

Key Figures and Data

• GDP Growth: 6.9% in 2012, close to the historical average.
• Inflation: 9.8% in March 2013, still double that of Uganda and Kenya.
• Port Delays: Container vessels wait 10 days on average in Dar es Salaam, compared to less than a day in Mombasa.
• Dwell Time: Takes 10 days to unload, clear, and transport goods in mid-2012.
• Annual Cost of Inefficiency: USD 1.8 billion for Tanzania, USD 800 million for the region.
• Port Fees: 74% higher in Dar es Salaam than in Mombasa.
• Trade Openness: Tanzania's trade openness ratio is roughly in the middle of the pack among 200 countries.
• Population Growth: 2.7% per year, doubling every 25 years.
• HDI Rank: 152nd out of 182 countries, indicating a need for improvement in human development.
• Business Environment Rank: 134th out of 185 countries, highlighting the need for reform.
• Government Effectiveness Rank: 135th out of 212 countries, indicating room for improvement.

Summary of Key Messages

• Tanzania's economy has shown strong and consistent growth, driven by key sectors and domestic demand.
• Inflation has declined, but remains relatively high.
• The Port of Dar es Salaam is a critical infrastructure that needs urgent reform to reduce trade costs and improve efficiency.
• Corruption is the most significant constraint to business in Tanzania, followed by taxes and regulations, access to finance, and trade barriers.
• Modernizing the port could lead to substantial economic gains for Tanzania and its neighbors.
• The Government's new initiative signals a willingness to act, but more momentum is needed to implement reforms effectively.