高盛-新兴市场-宏观策略-看好新兴市场2018年前景，有问题么？-20171203-34页_1mb

EM Strategy Views Summary

Core Content of the Outlook

Goldman Sachs presents a bullish outlook for Emerging Markets (EM) in 2018, emphasizing above-trend growth and positive total returns across key asset classes. The report addresses common concerns among macro clients, particularly regarding downside risks, return dispersion, and how EM assets are expected to perform relative to other asset classes.

Main Views and Key Insights

1. Growth Expectations and Market Performance

• Growth Acceleration is Key: EM asset markets are more sensitive to growth acceleration than to growth rates. Even with modest acceleration, returns can remain positive.
• Consensus Forecasts are Muted: For 2018, consensus forecasts for EM growth acceleration are significantly lower than in previous years (5bp vs. 30–60bp in prior years).
• Historical Resilience: EM assets have historically withstood up to a 25bp negative GDP revision without posting negative returns, suggesting a low risk of underperformance.
• Our Forecast: We expect a 40bp GDP acceleration (weighted) and 20bp (equal-weighted) for 2018, which supports a positive return outlook.

2. Synchronous Growth Cycle

• Synchronized Growth: EM and DM economies are growing in sync, indicating longevity in the current expansion.
• Less Dispersion: Growth rates across EM economies are more aligned than in previous years, which has reduced return dispersion.
• Low Volatility Regime: The low correlation between asset returns is likely due to low volatility rather than fundamental alignment.
• Positive Implication: Despite lower dispersion, the synchronized growth cycle is broadly supportive of EM assets, particularly equities and credit.

3. Is 2018 "More of the Same"?

• Equity Returns: EPS growth is expected to be the main driver in 2018, similar to 2017. P/E expansion will be limited due to rising US rates.
• Credit Returns: High-spread credits are expected to outperform, but the scope for further spread compression is smaller than in 2017. We forecast ~5% total returns for EM sovereign credit in 2018.
• FX Returns: EM FX is expected to appreciate by ~2% in 2018, with ~4.5% returns vs. USD. This is similar to the performance seen in 2016.
• Local Rates: Local yields are expected to rise, but the carry cushion from current levels and FX appreciation should help offset duration risk.

4. Best Growth Stories in EM Equities

• Asia Growth: We are tactically bullish on Asian equities, particularly China, Korea, and India.
• Profit Margins: EMs with room for margin recovery (Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Russia) are highlighted as key areas for rotation.
• Relative EPS Strength: In 2017, EM equity returns were driven by relative EPS performance, not valuation. This is expected to continue in 2018.

5. High Yield vs. Low Yield in EM Credit

• High-Spread Credits Outperform: A strategy of going long high-spread credits has consistently outperformed since 2015.
• Risk of Spread Widening: This strategy underperforms when spreads widen by more than 20bp per month, but we see low risk of persistent widening.
• Underperformers: Turkey and South Africa have underperformed in credit, but their FX has lagged more significantly. We prefer FX over credit in these markets.

6. EM Local Rates and US Rate Risks

• Low Beta Currencies: BRL, INR, COP, PEN, and RUB have low beta to US rates, making them more insulated.
• Inflation Support: Inflation remains supportive in these markets, but less so for BRL and INR.
• Preferred Markets: Brazil, Russia, India, Colombia, Peru, and China are highlighted for their low sensitivity to US rates and high starting yields.

7. Best Upside in EM FX

• Value FX: MXN, ZAR, and TRY have underperformed in 2017 but are now showing signs of recovery.
• Trade-FX: KRW, IDR, and INR are seen as growth-sensitive and have a constructive outlook.
• Commodity FX: CLP and PEN (linked to copper) are expected to continue appreciating due to strong demand.
• Relative Value Strategy: We prefer trading FX vs. local credits to hedge against idiosyncratic risks.

Key Takeaways

• EM assets are expected to perform well in 2018 despite a muted growth acceleration compared to 2017.
• Growth acceleration and relative EPS strength are the main drivers for EM equities.
• High-spread credits are expected to continue outperforming, but carry cushion is less than in previous years.
• FX appreciation is supported by carry and spot movements, with commodity-linked currencies (CLP, PEN) and Asia growth FX (KRW, IDR, INR) as top picks.
• Local rates will face pressure, but FX appreciation and starting yield levels are expected to keep returns positive.
• Synchronous growth across EM and DM suggests continued support for EM assets, though return dispersion is likely to increase.

Summary Table

Conclusion

Goldman Sachs remains constructive on EM assets in 2018, with a focus on equity and credit. The outlook is broadly positive, but return dispersion is expected to increase, particularly in FX and local rates. The report highlights the importance of relative value strategies and country-specific opportunities within the broader EM asset class.