2014年-世界发展银行全球_Zambia_Economic_Brief_December_2014_Issue_4___Financial_Services_-_Reaching_Every_Zambian_50页_1mb

Zambia Economic Brief Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of Zambia's economic developments in 2014 and explores the role of financial services in reaching every Zambian. It is a part of the World Bank's series of economic briefs, focusing on financial inclusion as a key development theme.

Main Points

Economic Outlook

• Growth: Zambia's economy is expected to grow at 6.0 percent in 2014, down from 6.7 percent in the previous two years.
• Drivers of Growth: The bumper maize harvest, rapid expansion in construction (supported by public investment in roads), and continued strong growth in the services sector.
• Fiscal Deficit: The final overall deficit is expected to be lower than the original budgeted 5.7 percent of GDP, due to spending cuts and higher-than-budgeted revenues.
• Political Uncertainty: The death of President Sata and upcoming elections pose risks to continued fiscal tightening.
• Tax Policy: Proposed changes to the mining tax regime and unresolved VAT refunds are potential concerns for investment and copper recovery.
• Medium-Term Outlook: Growth is projected to continue at 6.5-7 percent through 2018, supported by new mine developments. However, risks include policy slippages and external shocks.

Financial Inclusion

• Financial Inclusion Importance: Financial inclusion is seen as a key pillar of reform, aiding in poverty reduction, economic development, and improving access to savings and loans.
• Current Status: Zambia ranks below its economic and geographic peers in most financial inclusion indicators. Only 19 percent of adults have a formal financial account.
• Barriers: Lack of funds and high costs of maintaining accounts are the main reasons for low financial inclusion. Rural areas face significant challenges due to low population density and limited access to traditional banking services.
• Technology Potential: Mobile financial services offer new opportunities, but uptake remains low. Only 5 percent of adults use mobile financial services, compared to 16 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Agency Banking: This model could be effective in reaching rural and low-income populations, especially when combined with existing infrastructure like post offices.

Key Information

Financial Inclusion Indicators

• Account Penetration: 19% of adults in Zambia have a formal financial account (figure 2.2).
• Savings and Borrowing: 32% of adults save, while only 6% borrow from formal institutions (figure 2.3).
• Mobile Financial Services: Only 5% of adults use mobile financial services, far below the regional average (figure 2.4).

Economic Data

• GDP Growth: 6.0% in 2014, down from 6.7% in 2013 (annex A1).
• Inflation: Expected to be 7.8% in 2014, above the targeted 6.5% and the 2013 average of 7.0% (figure 1.8).
• Public Debt: Remains sustainable despite rising (figure 1.9).
• FDI Inflows: Projected to be $27 billion in 2014, down from $28.3 billion in 2013.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Exchange Rate: The kwacha depreciated sharply in the first half of 2014 but has since stabilized, regaining about half of the lost value (figure 1.7).
• Commodity Prices: Continued decline in global commodity prices, particularly copper, poses challenges for export-dependent economies.
• E-money Ecosystem: A multi-pronged approach is needed to develop a sustainable e-money ecosystem, with a national switch project being crucial.
• Government Payments: Leveraging government payments for social cash transfers and salaries could help increase transaction volumes and scale for financial service providers.
• Post Office Role: ZamPost can play a significant role in financial inclusion through its existing infrastructure and remittance services.

Conclusion

Zambia has made progress in financial inclusion but still lags behind its peers. Mobile financial services and agency banking are promising tools to expand access, especially in rural areas. A coherent national strategy, along with regulatory support and collaboration between stakeholders, is essential for achieving greater financial inclusion and ensuring the sustainability of the financial sector.