2016年-世界发展银行全球_Zambia_Economic_Brief_December_2016___Raising_Revenue_for_Economic_Recovery_46页_1mb

ZAMBIA ECONOMIC BRIEF Summary

Core Content

This Zambia Economic Brief from the World Bank Group (December 2016) focuses on raising revenue for economic recovery. It provides an analysis of recent economic developments in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Zambia specifically, highlighting the challenges faced and the policy measures needed to support recovery and more inclusive growth.

Main Views

1. Regional Economic Developments

• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced subdued economic activity in 2016, with GDP growth projected at 1.6%, the slowest in over two decades.
• Global conditions such as low growth, weak trade, and low commodity prices have negatively impacted the region.
• Commodity prices have recovered slightly but remain well below their 2011 peak.
• Nigeria and South Africa, the two largest economies in the region, have been the main drivers of the growth slowdown.
• Fiscal deficits have widened in oil-exporting countries, including Nigeria (projected to widen by more than a third) and Angola, Chad, and Equatorial Guinea.
• Debt ratios have remained elevated or increased in many countries, reducing fiscal space.
• Exchange rates have been volatile, with some countries like Zambia seeing improvements in Eurobond spreads.
• Market access for external financing has declined, with only Ghana, Mozambique, and South Africa tapping international debt markets.

2. The State of the Zambian Economy

• Zambia faced slower growth in 2016 due to global conditions and domestic challenges such as power outages, tight liquidity, and limited appetite for reform.
• The 2016 budget implementation led to a substantial build-up of spending arrears due to weak commitment control and deteriorating budget credibility.
• Monetary policy helped moderate inflation and support exchange rate stability, but at the cost of increased borrowing, low credit availability, and reserve drawdowns.
• Copper prices remained low, but production increased slightly due to improved electricity supply and new mine operations.
• Agricultural output saw modest improvements, with maize, soya beans, sunflowers, and sorghum production increasing by 9.7%, 8.7%, 75.9%, and 73.7% respectively.
• Non-mining industries (construction, manufacturing, electricity, and water and sewerage) contributed less to growth due to domestic constraints.

3. Economic Outlook

• GDP growth is expected to remain close to 3.0% in 2016 and improve to 4.0% in 2017 and 4.2% in 2018.
• Structural reforms and improved electricity supply are key to supporting economic recovery.
• Non-copper sectors need greater focus to ensure inclusive growth.
• Fiscal and monetary policies must be coordinated for effective recovery.

4. Policy Challenges

• Fiscal and monetary policies must work in tandem to support growth.
• Fiscal adjustments should be carefully planned to avoid disorderly or incomplete reforms.
• Key policy areas include:
  • Fiscal measures: setting and publishing medium-term fiscal targets, developing an arrears clearance strategy, improving debt management, and enhancing revenue mobilization.
  • Structural measures: fast-tracking electricity sector reforms, and implementing policies to boost the non-copper economy.

Key Information

Revenue Performance

• Public spending and revenues have grown since 2010, but expenditure growth has outpaced revenue growth.
• Domestic revenues now account for 98.6% of total revenue in 2015, with grants providing only 1.4%.
• The mining sector (including quarrying and cement production) contributed ZMW 8.8 billion in 2014, equivalent to 28% of domestic revenue.

Mining Revenue

• Transparency and data collection are critical to understanding the true contribution of the mining sector.
• The mining sector remains a key source of revenue, but monitoring and data gaps are a challenge.
• The Mineral Value Chain Monitoring Project (MVCMP) and Mineral Output Statistical Evaluation System (MOSES) aim to improve mineral value chain monitoring and data transparency.

Revenue Reforms

• Several revenue-related reforms are underway or planned, including:
  • TaxOnline initiatives to improve tax compliance.
  • Electronic Fiscal Devices (EFDs) to link retailers directly with the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA).
  • Tax gap studies, tax exemptions analysis, and Marginal Effective Tax Rates (METR) studies to inform tax policy.
• The Zambia Tax Platform (ZTP) and Zambia Extractives Industries Transparency Initiative (ZEITI) are part of the reform agenda.

Tax Policy and Administration

• Improving tax policy is the responsibility of the Ministry of Finance.
• Improving tax administration is the responsibility of the ZRA.
• Four key ideas for improving tax administration:
  1. Develop a strategy to increase tax compliance.
  2. Scale up taxpayer-focused public education campaigns.
  3. Design and build an effective system for property tax.
  4. Support efforts to improve monitoring of the mineral value chain.

Conclusion

The Zambia Economic Brief emphasizes the need for improved revenue collection and fiscal reforms to support economic recovery and inclusive growth. It calls for better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, enhanced transparency in the mining sector, and effective implementation of structural reforms to ensure long-term economic stability and poverty reduction.