世界发展银行-Thailand-Economic-Monitor,-July-2019-_-Harnessing-Fintech-for-Financial-Inclusion_59页_3mb

Summary of the Thailand Economic Monitor (July 2019)

Core Content

The Thailand Economic Monitor (TEM) is a comprehensive report that provides an analysis of recent economic developments, macroeconomic outlook, and the role of financial technology (fintech) in promoting financial inclusion. It is aimed at policymakers, business leaders, financial-market participants, and analysts. The report is produced by the World Bank's Bangkok office with contributions from various Thai government agencies and financial institutions.

Main Viewpoints

Economic Developments

• Growth Moderation: Thailand's economy has remained resilient to global headwinds, but growth began to moderate in early 2019. The GDP growth rate slowed to 2.8 percent year-on-year in Q1 2019, the first time below 3 percent since mid-2015.
• Export Decline: Exports contracted by 4 percent in Q1 2019, marking the first quarterly decline in three years, due to a weaker global and regional economic outlook and trade tensions.
• Private Investment: Private investment has remained robust, supported by ongoing public infrastructure projects and a favorable policy environment. Eight major export-oriented industries have seen capacity utilization exceed 80 percent.
• Private Consumption: Private consumption has remained resilient, with a focus on durable goods like automobiles and non-durable goods such as textiles, hotels, and restaurants. However, its contribution to GDP growth has slightly declined.
• Fiscal and Monetary Stability: The government's fiscal and monetary policies are expected to remain accommodative. Inflation is projected to remain low, and the current account surplus is expected to stay around 5 percent of GDP.
• Public Investment: Public investment has declined slightly due to the slowdown in megaproject implementation, especially in machinery and equipment. Public debt remains low at 41.6 percent of GDP at the end of FY 2018.
• Poverty and Inequality: Extreme poverty is low, but it is increasing in some regions. Poverty reduction has stalled since 2015-2017, and inequality indicators are worsening. This is attributed to declining agricultural employment and income, and the risk of drought.

Economic Outlook

• Growth Projections: The Thai economy is expected to grow by 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, driven by recovering domestic demand and the implementation of large public infrastructure projects, especially in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC).
• Risks: The outlook is subject to downside risks due to rising external headwinds, political uncertainty, and trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
• Domestic Risks: Political uncertainty and delays in implementing infrastructure projects could impact investor sentiment and consumer confidence, thereby weakening domestic demand.
• Trade Tensions: The ongoing trade tensions could further weaken export demand and discourage private investment in export-oriented industries.

Key Information

Policy Recommendations

• Continuity of Policies: Continuity in the implementation of inclusive growth policies is critical for success.
• Infrastructure Investment: Continued investment in public infrastructure is necessary to connect lagging regions and support economic growth.
• Fiscal Reforms: Reforms are needed to expand education services, promote financial access for low-income households and SMEs, and strengthen social safety nets for informal workers and the elderly.
• Capital Budget Disbursement: Improving the disbursement of the capital budget is essential to support economic growth.
• Fintech Development: The government should foster a level playing field in the fintech ecosystem, encourage collaboration between traditional banks and fintech firms, and improve coordination among regulatory sandboxes.

Financial Inclusion and Fintech

• Progress in Financial Inclusion: Thailand has made significant progress in financial inclusion over the last five years, with 82 percent of adults having an account at a formal financial institution.
• Fintech Growth: Fintech is transforming financial services and experiencing rapid growth in emerging markets. It has the potential to enhance financial services, mitigate risks, and support inclusive economic growth.
• Digital Divide: Despite progress, gaps in access to digital financial services reflect a deeper digital divide in internet and broadband penetration.
• Regulatory Support: The government has created a legal and institutional framework to support fintech and digital financial services, including the launch of PromptPay and the establishment of regulatory sandboxes.
• Fintech Ecosystem: Thailand's fintech subsector is growing rapidly, supported by PromptPay and regulatory sandboxes. However, it is still in its early stages of development.
• Fintech Potential: Fintech has the potential to support financial inclusion and reduce income inequality by providing access to financial services for underserved communities.

Key Figures and Indicators

• Real GDP Growth Rate (at constant market prices): 4.0% (2017), 4.1% (2018), 3.5% (2019), 3.6% (2020), 3.7% (2021)
• Private Consumption: 3.0% (2017), 4.6% (2018), 4.6% (2019), 4.7% (2020), 4.8% (2021)
• Government Consumption: 0.1% (2017), 1.8% (2018), 4.9% (2019), 5.1% (2020), 4.8% (2021)
• Gross Fixed Capital Investment: 1.8% (2017), 3.8% (2018), 3.5% (2019), 4.3% (2020), 4.5% (2021)
• Exports of Goods and Services: 5.4% (2017), 4.2% (2018), 2.2% (2019), 2.6% (2020), 3.2% (2021)
• Imports of Goods and Services: 6.2% (2017), 8.6% (2018), 3.9% (2019), 4.2% (2020), 4.5% (2021)
• Current Account Balance (% of GDP): 11.0% (2017), 7.0% (2018), 6.4% (2019), 5.2% (2020), 4.4% (2021)
• Public Debt (% of GDP): 41.2% (2017), 41.6% (2018), 42.6% (2019), 43.2% (2020), 43.7% (2021)

Conclusion

The report highlights the importance of fintech in promoting financial inclusion and reducing income inequality in Thailand. While the economy has shown resilience, it faces challenges from external headwinds and domestic uncertainties. Continued investment in public infrastructure and policy continuity are key to achieving the 20-Year National Strategy's goal of inclusive growth and high-income status. The government is actively promoting fintech development through regulatory sandboxes and supportive policies, but more coordination and collaboration are needed to fully leverage its potential for economic inclusion.