20240322-西南证券-宏观周报_三大部委重磅发声_海外央行分化操作_14页_2mb

报告摘要

Subsequent potential for interest rate cuts amid improving domestic demand, with three departments emphasizing fiscal and monetary policies.
Beijing advancing a new real estate model, focusing on supply of rental and low-cost housing, with increased allocation of special bonds for urban renewal.
Broader opening policies unveiled to attract foreign investment, highlighting support in healthcare, digital economy, and high-tech sectors.
Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged, reflecting stable policy rates despite economic indicators showing moderate growth in industrial output, consumption, and investment.
Fiscal policy actively supporting economic recovery and structural transition with increased use of tools like special bonds and tax incentives.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates steady, with projected three rate cuts this year if economic conditions permit.
Japanese Bank of Japan ends negative interest rates and raises rates, influenced by wage growth and global factors; potential for further rate hikes.
Russian President Putin wins presidential election, expected to strengthen中俄 relations and trade ties.
US Treasury data shows diverging foreign holdings of US debt, with Japan increasing and China decreasing, impacted by global monetary policy shifts.

Upstream: Crude oil prices rise sharply, while iron ore prices fall moderately; copper prices increase significantly.
Midstream: Steel and cement prices decline, alongside power coal prices; indicators suggest cooling in industrial activity.
Downstream: Residential real estate sales volumes surge; automotive retail shows strong growth, indicating consumer confidence.
Prices: Vegetables prices fall due to seasonality, while pork prices edge up slightly.

Focus on U.S. consumer confidence, Chinese industrial profit data, and various international economic indicators; Japan's Tokyo CPI will be closely watched.