2010年-世界发展银行全球_The_Potential_of_Regional_Power_Sector_Integration___South_East_Europe_Transmission_and_Trading_Case_Study_61页_2mb

Summary of the South East Europe (SEE) Regional Power Sector Integration Case Study

Core Content

This case study, submitted to the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) by Economic Consulting Associates in March 2010, examines the potential of regional power sector integration in South East Europe (SEE), focusing on the development of the Energy Community Treaty and its implications for electricity trade, infrastructure, and policy.

The Energy Community Treaty, signed in 2005 by Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, and the EU, aims to integrate the region's energy systems into the European Union (EU) energy policy framework. It builds on the earlier Athens Memorandum of 2002, which laid the groundwork for a regional electricity market.

Main Viewpoints

1.1 Motivations and Objectives for Trade

• Economic benefits: Increased electricity trade offers potential cost savings through coordinated regional least-cost investment planning, estimated at €3 billion between 2005 and 2020.
• Scale economies: Small countries in the region, such as Kosovo, can only benefit from economies of scale if they can export electricity.
• Revenue generation: Power export is a significant revenue source for some countries.
• Security of supply: Regional integration enables more efficient short-term dispatch and enhances electricity supply security.
• Political integration: Integration into the EU is a key political objective, with the hope of fostering effective political coordination among participating countries.

1.2 The Trade Solution Being Developed

• Legal and regulatory framework: The Energy Community Treaty incorporates the EU Acquis Communautaire into national legislation and establishes government-level institutions alongside regulatory and technical working groups.
• Market liberalization: The process includes the development of a common regulatory framework, independent national regulators, and unbundled transmission system operators (TSOs).
• Regional network integration: A regionally integrated network is being developed to link into the EU market, with common rules for generation, transmission, and distribution.
• Coordinated planning: Regional planning and competitive investment are being promoted to ensure efficient infrastructure development.
• Cross-border trading: Experimental mechanisms for simultaneous allocation of cross-border transmission capacity are in place.

1.3 Current Status and Future Plans

• Achievements:
  • Operating institutions and working groups have been established.
  • The region has been re-synchronized into the ENTSO-E network.
  • Cross-border transmission compensation mechanisms (CBT) have been developed.
  • Independent regulation and TSOs are being developed in several countries.
• Future plans:
  • Completion of country obligations under EU Directives (market opening, transparency, non-discriminatory pricing).
  • Coordinated transmission development planning.
  • Development of competitive cross-border trading arrangements.
  • Establishment of a day-ahead regional power exchange.
  • An integrated cross-border congestion management system.
  • A new large lignite power plant in Kosovo, reliant on regional export markets.

Key Information

2.1 Economic and Political Context

• The Energy Community Treaty was signed in 2005 by 10 countries and the EU, building on the Athens Memorandum of 2002.
• The region has a history of political and economic fragmentation, with many countries emerging from conflicts and wars, especially during the breakup of Yugoslavia.
• Access to the EU market and foreign investment have been key drivers for integration.
• The goal is to integrate the region into the EU energy policy framework and achieve political and economic cohesion.

2.2 Supply Options

• Generation mix: Coal is the dominant fuel, with lignite being the main indigenous source. Hydroelectric power is also significant, particularly in countries like Croatia and Albania.
• Transmission infrastructure: The region has been re-synchronized into the ENTSO-E network, which is a critical step in integration.
• Projected development: New generation capacity will largely come from the rehabilitation and expansion of lignite plants, with a major new plant in Kosovo. CCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) and hydro development are expected to be limited.
• Interconnection: Cross-border transmission capacities are being developed, with the aim of creating a more integrated regional electricity market.

2.3 Demand

• Projected demand growth is moderate, with significant variation between countries.
• Albania and Kosovo are expected to see the fastest growth, while Montenegro has the slowest.
• Demand is dominated by Romania and Bulgaria due to their larger populations and economies.
• Supply interruptions are more common in poorer areas like Albania and Kosovo, often due to economic issues and weak distribution infrastructure.

2.4 Energy Tariffs

• Tariffs vary significantly across the region, with coal-based countries generally having higher tariffs and hydro-based countries lower ones.
• Residential tariffs are often lower than commercial and industrial tariffs, but this is being gradually eliminated as competition increases.
• Tariff methodologies are similar, but differences in return on investment and cost structures lead to variations.
• A gradual move toward price equalization is expected as market liberalization and cross-border trade progress.

Institutional and Regulatory Arrangements

• Governance: The Energy Community Treaty establishes government-level institutions and regulatory working groups.
• National regulators: Independent national regulators are being developed to support a common regulatory framework.
• Transmission system operators (TSOs): TSOs are being unbundled and made independent to ensure fair and transparent operations.
• Regional coordination: The Energy Community Secretariat (ECS) and the Energy Community Regulatory Board (ECRB) play key roles in coordinating regional efforts.

Conclusion

The SEE regional power sector integration initiative is a complex and ambitious project aimed at creating a more efficient, secure, and economically viable electricity market. It is driven by both economic and political factors, with the ultimate goal of aligning the region with EU energy policies and fostering regional cooperation. The project has made significant progress, including the establishment of regulatory and institutional frameworks, re-synchronization with the EU grid, and the development of cross-border trading mechanisms. However, challenges remain, particularly in ensuring independent regulation, managing congestion, and achieving price equalization across the region. The success of this initiative will depend on continued investment, policy alignment, and regional cooperation.