2010年-世界发展银行全球_The_Potential_of_Regional_Power_Sector_Integration___Greater_Mekong_Subregion_Transmission_and_Trading_Case_Study_99页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Transmission & Trading Case Study

Core Content

The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) includes Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, and parts of China (Yunnan and Guangxi). The GMS region has been exploring regional power sector integration since 1992 through the GMS Economic Cooperation Program, with support from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and other international partners. The goal is to facilitate and accelerate regional power trading to promote economic growth, enhance cooperation in energy, and improve the environment through efficient and sustainable power generation.

The GMS regional power market is structured in four stages:

Stage 1: Bilateral export projects with common minimum standards and national codes.
Stage 2: Cross-border power trading with regulatory frameworks for interconnector access.
Stage 3: Development of interconnectors specifically for power trade and third-party participation.
Stage 4: Creation of an integrated competitive regional power market.

Currently, Stage 1 is ongoing, with bilateral trade being the primary form of power exchange, and Stage 2 is in preparation. The GMS Program is governed by summits of heads of government, with the Subregional Electric Power Forum (EPF) and Regional Power Trade Coordination Committee (RPTCC) playing key roles in coordination and planning. These institutions are non-permanent, with secretariats provided by host countries and ADB.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Motivations for Power Trade

Thailand was the primary driver for power trade due to its rapid economic growth and increasing electricity demand, which led to a need for low-cost energy sources.
Lao PDR and Myanmar have significant hydro potential, making them key exporters of electricity.
Vietnam has become a potential importer to meet its fast-growing demand.
Cambodia seeks to reduce reliance on oil and expand grid electricity through power imports.
China is both an exporter and a potential importer to meet its own growing demand and to support regional trade.

2. Current Trade Arrangements

Thailand has signed multiple Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) with Lao PDR, Myanmar, and China for power imports, with targets increasing from 1,500 MW to 10,000 MW by 2017.
Lao PDR has two operational hydro plants (210 MW Theun Hinboun and 150 MW Houay Ho) and is developing the 1,088 MW Nam Theun 2 plant.
Myanmar is developing five major hydro projects on the Salween River, with the first two having a combined capacity of 8,200 MW.
Vietnam has signed an MOU with Lao PDR for the import of 2,000 MW, and is also importing from China.
Cambodia is planning to import up to 200 MW from Vietnam via a new interconnector and has existing imports from Thailand.

3. Challenges and Progress

Regional power trade is not yet active, but bilateral trade is limited.
Stage 1 of the regional market (establishing common standards) is expected to be completed by 2010, while Stage 2 (regulatory preparation) is targeted for 2012.
Interconnector development is a critical component of expanding trade, with several proposed and planned projects.
China has not yet finalized transit payment agreements with Lao PDR for its power imports, which has stalled progress on some projects.
Environmental and social issues are a concern, particularly with large-scale hydro projects, but there are carbon emission savings potential through renewable energy trade.

4. Institutional and Regulatory Framework

Institutions such as the Electric Power Forum (EPF), Regional Power Trade Coordination Committee (RPTCC), and Planning Working Group (PWG) are responsible for governance and coordination.
National regulatory agencies (NRAs) exist in Cambodia, China, Thailand, and Vietnam, but powers and independence vary.
Outside agencies, including ADB and World Bank, have provided technical assistance and funding for interconnection projects and feasibility studies.

5. Future Plans

The Vientiane Plan of Action and Regional Cross Border Trade Road Map outline key steps for regional integration.
Physical interconnections are being planned, with ADB and World Bank-funded projects in the pipeline.
Vietnam is planning to introduce a competitive generation market by 2010, with full retail competition by 2024.
Thailand has reverted to a single-buyer model, while Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar remain state-dominated with limited room for competition.

Key Projects and Data

1. Export Projects

Lao PDR: 210 MW Theun Hinboun (1998), 150 MW Houay Ho (1999), 1,088 MW Nam Theun 2 (planned for 2009).
Myanmar: Five major hydro projects on the Salween River (first two: 8,200 MW).
Vietnam: Importing from Lao PDR (250 MW Xekaman 3 hydro plant) and China.
Thailand: Importing 10,000 MW from Lao PDR by 2017 and developing five major hydro projects in Myanmar.

2. Economic Context

The GMS region has high GDP growth rates, with Thailand being the most affected by the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
China is the largest power market, with Yunnan and Guangxi being major hydro and coal hubs.
Vietnam is expected to see a sixfold increase in installed capacity by 2020, driven by demand growth.
Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar have smaller markets but are export-oriented due to their hydro potential.

3. Energy Resources

Hydro potential is the main resource in the GMS, with theoretical and economic potential varying by country.
Coal, gas, and oil are also used in some countries, but hydro is the dominant source in Lao PDR and Myanmar.
Thailand relies heavily on natural gas, while Vietnam is diversifying into hydro and coal.

4. Tariffs and Costs

Retail tariffs vary significantly across the GMS.
Marginal cost comparisons show that hydro is the most cost-effective.
Prices of other fuels (coal, gas, oil) are higher, making hydro imports more attractive.

Conclusion

The GMS regional power market is in early development, with bilateral trade being the main form of exchange so far. Hydroelectric power is the key export resource, especially from Lao PDR and Myanmar, and Thailand is the primary importer. The vision for a fully integrated market remains aspirational, with institutional and regulatory challenges still to be addressed. China is both a supplier and potential importer, and Vietnam is expanding its role as an importer and future exporter. Future progress will depend on regulatory reforms, interconnector development, and cross-border cooperation.