2019年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Fiji_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_59页_4mb

2018 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Fiji Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Article IV consultation with the Republic of Fiji, conducted by the IMF, evaluated the country's economic performance, policy frameworks, and future outlook. The consultation concluded that Fiji's economy was recovering from natural disasters and was expected to record its ninth consecutive year of GDP growth in 2018. The IMF's Executive Board endorsed the staff appraisal, emphasizing the need for increased resilience and improved growth performance.

Main Views and Key Points

Economic Recovery and Growth

• Growth: Fiji's economy is expected to grow at 3-3.5% in 2019 and the medium term, in line with potential growth estimates.
• Resilience: Despite natural disasters, the economy has shown resilience, supported by strong consumption and public investment.
• Inflation: Headline inflation reached 5.2% in November 2018 due to higher taxes and yaqona prices, but is projected to decline to 3% in 2019-20 as supply conditions normalize.

External Conditions

• Challenges: External conditions are becoming less favorable due to higher oil prices, lower sugar prices, and slowing growth in major trading partners.
• Trade Deficit: The trade deficit increased to about 2.7% of GDP in the first nine months of 2018, driven by higher imports of transportation equipment and fuel and lower sugar exports.
• Foreign Reserves: Foreign reserves declined by 13% in 2018 but remained at about 4.5 months of retained imports by December 2018.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit in FY2017-18 was 4.8% of GDP, with public debt at 50% of GDP.
• Fiscal Consolidation: Faster fiscal consolidation is needed to rebuild fiscal space and support external stability. The current fiscal strategy targets a gradual reduction of the deficit to 2.5% in 2020-21 and 1.5% in 2022-23, but is not ambitious enough.
• Recommended Scenario: The IMF recommends a more ambitious fiscal consolidation strategy, targeting a fiscal deficit of 1% of GDP by 2022-23 and a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 44%, creating a 6% buffer compared to the current level.

Monetary Policy

• Monetary Stance: Monetary policy may need to be tightened to support external stability, especially if external conditions remain unfavorable.
• Policy Rate: The central bank's policy rate has remained at 0.5% since 2016, despite financial conditions tightening.

Financial Sector Reforms

• Reforms: The IMF encourages continued financial sector reforms, including a more risk-based approach to banking supervision, development of macroprudential toolkits, and improved governance of non-banking financial institutions.
• Legislation: Passing legislation to formalize the RBF's mandate over macroprudential activities is recommended.

Governance and Institutional Reforms

• Fiscal Transparency: Improving fiscal transparency by including public corporations in reporting and publishing annual reports of major SOEs and statutory bodies.
• Rule of Law: Enhancing the investment regime in line with international best practices to strengthen the rule of law.

Pension Savings

• Restoration: Pension savings used to mitigate the impact of Cyclone Winston should be restored to ensure adequate retirement benefits, especially as many contributors have low savings balances.

Private Investment and Growth Potential

• Attracting Investment: Reforms should focus on improving the business environment and regulatory framework to attract and support private investment.
• Ease of Doing Business: Reducing procedures to start a business and decreasing tax compliance hours are key measures to enhance productivity and diversify the economy.

Key Information

• IMF Staff Report Completion: The staff report was completed on January 31, 2019, following discussions with officials from December 3-18, 2018.
• Document Types: The consultation includes a Press Release and a Staff Report, along with an Informational Annex.
• Contact Information: The report is available from the IMF's Publication Services, with a price of $18.00 per printed copy.
• Data Quality: Improving data quality, including national accounts and consumer price indexes, is essential for better policy-making.

Summary Table of Selected Economic Indicators (2015–20)

Key Recommendations

• Fiscal Consolidation: Focus on expenditure-based measures to rebuild fiscal space and reduce the fiscal deficit to 1% of GDP by 2022-23.
• Monetary Tightening: Consider tightening monetary policy to support external stability.
• Financial Sector Reforms: Implement risk-based supervision and macroprudential tools.
• Governance Improvements: Enhance fiscal transparency and the rule of law.
• Pension Savings: Restore pension savings to ensure adequacy for future retirees.
• Private Investment: Improve the business environment and regulatory framework to attract private investment.
• Data Quality: Enhance the quality of economic data for better policy guidance.