2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Kazakhstan_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_60页_3mb

2018 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Kazakhstan Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Article IV consultation with the Republic of Kazakhstan, conducted by the IMF, assessed the country's economic performance, risks, and policy framework. The consultation took place between June 14 and June 27, 2018, with the final report completed on August 27, 2018. The IMF's Executive Board concluded the consultation on September 12, 2018, endorsing the staff's appraisal without meeting.

Key Economic Indicators (2015–2019)

Main Points and Recommendations

Economic Recovery and Growth

• Economic recovery has strengthened, with GDP growth reaching 4.0% in 2017 and 4.1% in Q1 2018.
• Growth is driven by higher oil production, increased trade, and manufacturing activity.
• Inflation has declined and remained within the NBK's target range (5–7%), with expectations well-anchored.
• The NBK has implemented several interest rate cuts, supporting price stability.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal consolidation is ongoing, with the 2018 budget projecting a surplus of 1.4% of GDP.
• Non-oil fiscal deficit is expected to decline to 6.1% of GDP, reflecting spending reforms and improved tax administration.
• The authorities are considering issuing a tenge Eurobond to attract foreign investors and establish a benchmark.
• Tax reforms have been introduced, particularly in natural resource taxation, to encourage exploration and improve revenue collection.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy

• The NBK has maintained a flexible exchange rate regime, which has helped absorb macroeconomic shocks and support dedollarization.
• The NBK has managed liquidity through a mix of short-term instruments, including 7-day notes and up to one-year issues.
• The exchange rate has floated, with occasional interventions to curb volatility, mainly linked to oil prices and the Russian ruble.
• A cautious monetary policy approach is recommended, given the changing balance of risks.

Financial Sector Stability

• Steps have been taken to address banking sector weaknesses, including capital support, purchase of non-performing assets, and withdrawal of licenses from non-compliant banks.
• The NBK has provided capital support through low-interest subordinated loans to five large banks.
• Despite these efforts, risks remain due to high NPLs, weak credit risk management, and limited long-term funding.
• Legal and institutional changes have strengthened the NBK's supervisory powers.

Structural Reforms and Governance

• Structural reforms aim to reduce dependence on natural resources, improve the business climate, and enhance governance.
• The "100 Concrete Steps" initiative has made progress, with more than half of the reforms completed.
• Privatization and IPOs for "blue-chip" SOEs are being advanced, particularly in telecoms, aviation, and nuclear materials.
• The Astana International Financial Center (AIFC) was launched to promote financial integration and attract foreign investment.

Risks and Outlook

• Risks include fluctuations in oil prices, slower growth in key trading partners (Russia, China, EU), and global financial conditions.
• Non-oil growth is expected to strengthen, with inflation projected to decline further.
• The external current account is expected to improve in 2018 and remain close to balance over the medium term.
• A continued focus on fiscal transparency, risk management, and structural reforms is essential for long-term stability and growth.

Key Recommendations

• Fiscal Policy: Continue fiscal consolidation, enhance non-oil revenues, and phase out state support programs.
• Monetary Policy: Maintain a cautious approach, focus on price stability, and ensure that quasi-fiscal initiatives are temporary and market-based.
• Financial Sector: Strengthen credit risk management, improve asset quality, and ensure that reforms lead to real changes on the ground.
• Structural Reforms: Accelerate implementation of reforms to improve the business climate, governance, and public administration.
• Exchange Rate and Transparency: Enhance transparency and communication regarding foreign exchange operations and strengthen the flexible exchange rate regime.