2013-06-02-皮尤-Inside_the_2012_Latino_Electorate_17页_194kb

2012 Latino Electorate Summary

Core Content

The Pew Hispanic Center report analyzes the participation of Latinos in the 2012 presidential election, highlighting trends in voter turnout, demographics, and political support.

Key Findings

• Total Latino voters: 11.2 million in 2012, representing 8.4% of the total electorate.
• Voter turnout rate: 48% for all Latinos, down from 49.9% in 2008.
• Political support: 71% of Latinos supported Barack Obama over Mitt Romney.
• Eligible voter growth: The number of Latino eligible voters increased by 19% (from 19.5 million to 23.3 million) between 2008 and 2012.
• Non-voters: 12.1 million Latinos were eligible but did not vote, making up 15% of all non-voters in the U.S. in 2012.

Main Points

Voter Turnout by Subgroups

• Naturalized immigrants from the 1990s: Turnout increased from 41.2% to 47.2%.
• Hispanics aged 65 and older: Turnout increased from 56% to 59.9%.
• Puerto Ricans: Turnout increased from 49.7% to 52.8%.
• Highest turnout: Among college graduates (70.8%) and Cuban-origin Latinos (67.2%).
• Lowest turnout: Among ages 18–29 (36.9%) and those with less than a high school diploma (35.5%).

Demographics of Latino Voters and Nonvoters

• Nonvoters were more likely to be:
  • Male (51% vs. 47% of voters).
  • Young (40% under 30 vs. 25% of voters).
  • Mexican-origin (66% of nonvoters vs. 52% of voters).
  • Less educated (27% had less than a high school diploma vs. 16% of voters).
• Voters were more likely to be:
  • Female (53%).
  • Older (with 25% aged 18–29).
  • Cuban-origin (7% of voters).
  • More educated (23% had a college degree or more vs. 9% of nonvoters).
  • Naturalized citizens (27% of voters vs. 78% of nonvoters).

Voter Turnout Rate by Subgroups

• College graduates: 70.8%.
• Cuban-origin: 67.2%.
• Mexican-origin: 42.2%.
• Puerto Rican-origin: 52.8%.
• High school graduates: 39.4%.
• Young voters (18–29): 36.9%.
• Naturalized citizens: 53.6%.
• U.S.-born citizens: 46.1%.

Key Information

• Eligibility vs. Turnout: Only 43.9% of Hispanics were eligible to vote, while 51.7% of Asians, 69.1% of blacks, and 78.6% of whites were eligible.
• Youth population growth: The number of U.S.-born young Hispanics who became eligible to vote increased by 3.7 million between 2008 and 2012.
• Voter registration: 13.7 million Hispanics were registered to vote in 2012, an increase of 18% from 2008.
• Voter turnout among registered Hispanics: 81.7%, down from 84% in 2008.
• Non-citizen adults: Played a significant role in the growth of the Latino population but were not eligible to vote.

Trends and Context

• Youth turnout decline: The 18–29 age group saw a decline in voter turnout from 51% in 2008 to 45% in 2012.
• Black voter turnout: Surpassed white turnout for the first time in 2012, though this finding has been met with skepticism.
• White voter decline: The number of white voters decreased for the second consecutive election, contributing to a decline in the white voter turnout rate.
• Future projections: The Hispanic electorate is expected to double by 2030, emphasizing the growing importance of the Latino vote in U.S. politics.

Methodology

• Data source: Current Population Survey (CPS) November Voting and Registration Supplement.
• Data limitations: Does not include military personnel or institutionalized individuals.
• Definitions:
  • Voting Age Population: Persons 18 years and older.
  • Voting Eligible Population: U.S. citizens aged 18 and older.
  • Registered Voter Population: Those who reported being registered.
  • Voter Population: Those who reported voting in the November 2012 election.
  • Voter Turnout Rate: Percentage of eligible voters who voted.

Conclusion

The 2012 Latino electorate saw record participation, but turnout rates remained lower compared to other groups. The diversity within the Latino community influenced their voting behavior, with education, age, and origin playing significant roles. The report underscores the potential future influence of the Latino vote in U.S. politics due to their growing numbers and increasing participation among certain subgroups.