2011年-ECB欧洲央行_Integrated_euro_area_accounts_for_the_fourth_quarter_of_2010_6页_389kb

Box 4 Summary

Core Content

The integrated euro area accounts for the fourth quarter of 2010, released on 3 May 2011, provide a detailed overview of the income, spending, financing, and portfolio decisions of institutional sectors in the euro area. These accounts highlight a continued economic recovery, with varying degrees of resilience and adjustment across different sectors.

Main Points

• Economic Recovery: The euro area economy showed signs of recovery, with nominal gross disposable income increasing at an annual rate of 3%.
• Sectoral Contributions: The growth in income was most pronounced in the government sector, while household and non-financial corporation (NFC) contributions were more subdued.
• Net Lending/Net Borrowing: The euro area's net borrowing stabilized at 0.8% of GDP. This reflects a shift in sectoral balance, with government net borrowing decreasing and households' net lending declining further.
• Government Saving: Government saving increased significantly, contributing the most to the overall euro area saving, while household savings continued to fall.
• Private Consumption: Private consumption remained resilient despite a contraction in real household income due to high commodity prices, driven by precautionary savings.
• Household Savings Ratio: The savings ratio for households dropped to 13.4%, close to the lowest level in the past decade, indicating a shift towards more consumption and less saving.
• NFC Net Borrowing: NFCs transitioned from net lending to a small net borrowing position, with their external financing showing a slight increase.
• Financial Corporations: Financial corporations experienced a sharp rise in disposable income due to higher dividends earned than paid, while their value added and gross operating surplus declined year on year.
• Portfolio Allocation: There was a continued search for yield and increased risk appetite, with households favoring non-monetary assets and NFCs relying on inter-company and market funding.
• Disintermediation: Disintermediation remained a key feature, with households and NFCs reducing reliance on traditional banking channels and shifting towards market-based financing.

Key Information

• Income Growth:
  • Households: +1.8% year on year, driven by salary increases and property income.
  • Government: Significant contribution to overall income growth.
• Consumption and Savings:
  • Private consumption remained resilient despite real income contraction.
  • Household savings ratio fell to 13.4%, close to a decade low.
• Investment and Capital Formation:
  • Gross capital formation continued to expand, albeit with some moderation.
  • NFC investment was subdued, leading to a marked decline in net lending.
• Government Sector:
  • Government deficit fell to 6% of GDP in 2010.
  • Debt issuance increased due to the operation of a German bad bank.
• Financial Corporations:
  • Net retained earnings reached €165 billion in 2010.
  • Holding gains on equity offset valuation losses on debt securities and USD-denominated instruments.
• External Accounts:
  • Current account deficit remained stable.
  • Cross-border transactions expanded, with interbank deposits stabilizing after a period of contraction.
• Balance Sheet Dynamics:
  • Households' net worth increased at a significant rate, reaching 24.6% of income.
  • Holding gains on equity and property contributed to this growth, with property prices rising for three consecutive quarters.
• Market Trends:
  • Debt securities issuance by the government increased, while NFCs reduced their use of the market.
  • Mutual fund shares saw continued issuance, especially non-money market funds, reflecting a riskier appetite.
  • The rest of the world did not return to being a major net buyer of debt securities.
  • Non-residents were heavy sellers on the debt securities market, while domestic sectors became heavy buyers.

Charts and Data

• Chart A: Shows the contribution of each institutional sector to euro area gross disposable income.
• Chart B: Illustrates the net lending/net borrowing of the euro area as a percentage of GDP.
• Chart C: Depicts household income, consumption growth, and savings ratio.
• Chart D: Reflects the composition of households' financial investment.
• Chart E: Highlights the external financing of non-financial corporations.
• Chart F: Depicts loans granted by non-financial corporations and trade credit flows.
• Chart G: Shows holding gains and losses in financial corporations' assets.
• Chart H: Represents the change in net worth of households as a percentage of gross disposable income.

Conclusion

The euro area's economic recovery in the fourth quarter of 2010 was characterized by a stabilization in net borrowing, a decline in household savings, and a continued reliance on market-based financing. Despite challenges such as high commodity prices and deleveraging pressures, the recovery showed signs of resilience, particularly in private consumption and government fiscal consolidation. Financial disintermediation persisted, with institutional sectors adjusting their portfolio allocations and financing strategies in response to evolving economic conditions.