2024-11-10-世界银行-危机信贷_就业保护_债务和风险（英）_70页_1mb

Summary of Policy Research Working Paper 10958: Crisis Credit, Employment Protection, Indebtedness, and Risk

I. Micro-level Findings

• The credit guarantee program tends to be disproportionately utilized by riskier firms, driven by low interest rates and partial government backing.

• Conversely, the employment protection program is more equally adopted across firms, with its use being more strongly associated with firms experiencing sales growth declines.

• Firms using both programs mitigate their indebtedness growth, with the availability of the employment program improving bank screening for the credit program.

• Loan demand increases significantly during the program, though bank screening prevents excessive allocation to the riskiest firms.

II. Aggregate Effects

• The credit program's aggregate risk is lower than many counterfactual scenarios suggest due to allocation to safer firms and mitigating design features.

• The total risk borne by the banking system is about 59% and by the government 41% in the baseline scenario.

III. Policy Implications

• The paper suggests that credit and employment programs coexist to balance coverage and fiscal sustainability, avoiding large increases in aggregate risk even when aimed at helping riskier firms.

• The study provides a framework for policymakers to assess the risks associated with broad-based government credit programs during economic crises.