2018年-查塔姆研究所_Prepared_for_Future_Threats_US_Defence_Partnerships_in_the_Asia-Pacific_Region_58页_2mb

US Defence Partnerships in the Asia-Pacific Region: Summary

Core Content

This report, authored by Xenia Dormandy and published by Chatham House in June 2012, examines whether the United States' defence alliances and partnerships in the Asia-Pacific region are adequate to meet future challenges and whether they remain the most efficient approach in an era of economic austerity. It highlights the evolving strategic landscape and the need for the US to adapt its military and diplomatic engagement to address both traditional and non-traditional security threats.

Main Points

1. Regional Context

• The Asia-Pacific region is expected to become the world's most important political, economic, and strategic area.
• The US must reorient its foreign policy to reflect this shift, acknowledging that the "unipolar moment" has ended and power is moving to the East.
• The US has a long history of military presence in the region, rooted in post-WWII settlements and Cold War alliances.
• The US has been diversifying its partnerships to include both traditional allies and emerging powers like India, Vietnam, and Malaysia.

2. Threat Perception

• The US and its allies face a mix of traditional and non-traditional security threats.
• Traditional threats include:
  • Nuclear proliferation from North Korea
  • Regional tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea
  • Threats to prosperity and open trade, such as energy supply disruptions
  • Violent extremism in Southeast Asia
• Non-traditional threats include:
  • Cybersecurity
  • Food and water security
  • Pandemics
  • Natural disasters
  • Broader resource security
• Managing the Sino-American relationship is critical to maintaining stability in the region.

3. Military Capabilities and Strategy

• US military capabilities in the Asia-Pacific are currently over-extended and not aligned with future strategic needs.
• The US should shift from a focus on conventional warfare to more strategic, non-traditional areas such as cyber and space security.
• The military's role should emphasize reassurance, deterrence, and cooperative threat response rather than solely relying on troop numbers.
• The US must rebalance its military presence, moving away from ground forces toward air and maritime capabilities.

4. Recommendations

• Diversify bilateral agreements with regional actors, including both traditional and non-traditional partners.
• Focus on defence capabilities rather than just troop numbers, especially with Japan and South Korea.
• Enhance intelligence sharing and joint research and development with key partners.
• Work with China to establish crisis prevention mechanisms, such as high-level communication channels and an Incidents at Sea Agreement.
• Tread more softly in the region to avoid provoking China and to build trust with other partners.
• Strengthen regional institutions like APEC, ASEAN, and the East Asia Summit to promote transparency and cooperation.
• Integrate China into security dialogues to reduce fears of containment and improve information sharing.
• Focus on non-traditional security issues such as cyberspace, food, water, and health, where cooperation is more feasible and less sensitive.
• Promote collaboration in humanitarian assistance and disaster response, which can build trust and joint capabilities among regional states.

Key Information

• The US has been pivoting to Asia since the George H.W. Bush administration, with continued efforts under Clinton and Obama.
• The "pivot" is not a complete realignment of US assets but rather a symbolic and strategic shift toward the region.
• The US faces budget cuts due to fiscal austerity, which could impact its military presence and force a rethinking of its security strategy.
• The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), ASEAN, ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), and East Asia Summit (EAS) provide important platforms for regional dialogue and cooperation.
• The ANZUS treaty remains a cornerstone of US-Australia security relations, though the alliance is evolving.
• The US-India relationship, while not formalized by treaty, has grown significantly through military cooperation, joint exercises, and arms sales.
• The report emphasizes the need for a more flexible and cooperative approach to security, especially in addressing non-traditional threats.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the US has a strong presence in the Asia-Pacific region, it must adapt its alliances and partnerships to the new strategic environment. This includes shifting from a conventional military focus to a broader, more integrated approach that addresses both traditional and non-traditional security challenges. Strengthening multilateral and plurilateral frameworks, enhancing cooperation with China, and focusing on joint capabilities and shared interests are key to ensuring the region's stability and security in the coming decades.