20220119-罗兰贝格-Roland_Berger_Trend_Compendium_2050_Technology_Innovation_82页_8mb

Megatrend 5: Technology & Innovation Summary

Core Content

The Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2050 highlights the importance of Technology & Innovation as a central driver of global development from now until 2050. This megatrend is deeply interconnected with economy and society, influencing productivity, growth, and prosperity. It is emphasized that while global events like the Corona pandemic create short-term disruptions, they do not negate the long-term trajectory of megatrends such as technological advancement.

Main Points

• Innovation is key to sustainable growth and is defined as the process of turning new ideas into value through products, services, or processes.
• Innovation types include:
  • Product offering innovations: Subdivided into product performance and product system innovations, leading to more differentiated products and associated ecosystems.
  • Business model and process innovations: Crucial for downstream effects and enabling further innovations.
  • User experience innovations: Affect customers directly and include branding, customer engagement, and service innovations.
• Frontier technologies are expected to play a pivotal role in future growth, including AI, 5G, quantum computing, and digital transformation.
• Humans & Machines will increasingly collaborate, with a focus on automation, AI integration, and redefining the workforce.
• The value of innovation is not only about creating new products but also about market penetration, reputation, and economic impact.

Key Information

Innovation and Economic Prosperity

• A country's innovation ability is a key indicator of its economic competitiveness and prosperity.
• The Global Innovation Index (GII) ranks countries based on factors such as institutions, human capital, infrastructure, market sophistication, and knowledge and technology outputs.
• Top 10 innovative countries in 2021 include Switzerland, Sweden, US, UK, South Korea, Netherlands, Finland, Singapore, Denmark, and Germany, all of which are advanced economies.
• China is an exception, with high innovation potential but a lower GDP per capita, largely due to income disparities.

R&D Investment and Innovation

• R&D expenditure is a critical factor for innovation, with a threefold increase from USD 722 billion in 2000 to USD 2.2 trillion in 2017.
• R&D investment gaps between the Global North and South are significant, with the Global South lagging in innovation output and scientific publication.
• Emerging countries need to boost innovation to achieve sustainable per capita GDP growth.
• Decoupling of productivity and wages is a growing concern, especially in developed countries, where technological change and global supply chains are affecting wage growth.

Structural Shifts in the Economy

• The global economy is shifting from manufacturing to services, with modern services (ICT-enabled) being more productivity-enhancing and crisis-resilient.
• ICT is tipping the balance towards labor displacement, leading to a decline in labor demand and a decoupling of wage and productivity growth.

Investments in Emerging Countries

• Emerging countries are increasing their technological competitiveness through strategic investments in frontier technologies.
• Examples include:
  • Indonesia: Digital economy expected to grow from USD 44 billion to USD 124 billion by 2025.
  • Thailand: Digital infrastructure investments to rise by 20.5% to USD 6.6 billion by 2022.
  • Kenya: Planning USD 30-50 billion in investments to increase renewable energy to 80% of total supply by 2030.
  • Saudi Arabia: Allocating USD 500 billion to launch NEOM, a high-tech hub and free trade zone.
  • Malaysia: Allocating over USD 242 million for Industry 4.0 technologies.

Education and Innovation

• Investment in education is crucial for future innovation leadership.
• PISA results correlate with GII rankings, indicating that high-quality human capital is essential for innovation.
• Educational resources and teacher training are vital to developing a knowledge-based society.

Challenges and Opportunities

• The productivity paradox is observed in developed countries, where increased innovation does not translate to higher productivity.
• Structural challenges such as demographic shifts and service sector dominance are contributing to the decoupling of productivity and wages.
• Emerging countries face underperformance in innovation due to lack of skills, institutions, and investment.
• FDI can help emerging economies break the poverty trap by bringing in new technologies, investment, and economic growth.

Conclusion

The Technology & Innovation megatrend underscores the necessity of strategic investments, education, and sustainable development. While innovation is a key driver of economic growth, its impact is influenced by structural changes, market conditions, and global trends. Emerging countries have the potential to catch up with developed economies through targeted investments and improved innovation ecosystems.