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Megatrend 6: Politics & Governance Summary

Core Content

The Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2050 highlights the megatrend of Politics & Governance, emphasizing the evolving landscape of global political systems and democratic norms from 2020 to 2050. This trend explores the decline of democratic values, the rise of autocratization, and the challenges to governance in the context of global events such as the Corona pandemic.

Main Views

• Democracy is under threat: The decline of democratic traits is accelerating, with autocratization and democracy fatigue posing significant challenges to global governance.
• Shift in regime types: Electoral autocracies are the most common regime type, and the proportion of the global population living under non-democratic regimes has increased to 68% in 2020.
• Generational dissatisfaction: Younger generations, particularly Millennials and Generation X, show lower satisfaction with democracy compared to older generations, with this trend expected to continue.
• Pandemic impact on democratic norms: Emergency measures during the pandemic have affected democratic standards, but most violations were temporary. However, in some countries, these measures have contributed to a risk of democratic backsliding.
• Internal democratic erosion: The primary threat to democracy comes from democratically elected leaders who gradually erode democratic institutions and rights, often through subtle tactics.
• Early warning signs of autocratization: Indicators such as low commitment to the democratic process, demonization of political opponents, encouragement of political violence, and disrespect for minority rights signal potential autocratic tendencies.

Key Information

1. Future of Democracy

• Decline in liberal democracies: The number of liberal democracies has decreased to 32, representing only 14% of the global population.
• Electoral democracies: These account for 19% of the population and have seen a decline in satisfaction over the past 50 years.
• Electoral autocracies: These are the most common regime type, with 87 out of 179 countries classified as such.
• Pandemic and democracy: The pandemic has led to violations of democratic standards, particularly in the form of media restrictions, but most countries have since reverted to minor or non-violators.
• Democracy fatigue: A global trend of dissatisfaction with democracy has been rising since 2005, reaching an all-time high in 2019 with 58% of citizens expressing unhappiness with democracy.
• India's shift: India, the world's largest democracy, has recently been reclassified as an electoral autocracy.

2. Governance Challenges

• Intergenerational dissatisfaction: Younger generations are less satisfied with democracy than older ones, with this trend expected to worsen.
• Regional disparities: In Anglo-Saxon democracies, Latin America, Southern Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa, younger generations are less satisfied than their predecessors.
• Pandemic backsliding index (PanBack): This index identifies countries at risk of democratic erosion due to pandemic-related policies. High-risk countries include Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, India, and others.
• Voice & Accountability (VA) Index: This measures citizens' ability to influence their political systems. The average score for 2020 was -0.04, with Norway leading and North Korea lagging significantly.
• Political reforms needed: Post-pandemic expectations in advanced economies indicate a need for major political reforms to restore public trust.

3. Geopolitics & Global Risks

• Global regime shifts: The number of countries under autocratic regimes has increased, while liberal democracies have declined.
• Autocratization strategies: These include subtle tactics such as media censorship, civil society suppression, and undermining election management bodies.
• Examples of autocratization: Countries like Venezuela, Tunisia, and South Africa have seen democratic erosion, often under leaders who have undermined democratic institutions.
• Pandemic-related violations: Media restrictions were the most common violation of democratic standards during the pandemic, with 2/3 of countries imposing moderate to major restrictions.
• Long-term implications: The longer-term effects of pandemic-related policies in the "gray zone" of countries (electoral autocracies or democracies) remain a concern for democratic stability.

Conclusion

The trend of Politics & Governance underscores the fragility of democratic systems and the increasing prevalence of autocratization. Understanding these megatrends is crucial for strategic planning and policy development, especially in the context of global uncertainties like the pandemic. The data highlights the need for vigilance, reform, and the protection of democratic norms and institutions.