20240321-招银国际-Margin_improvement_to_continue_7页_1mb

报告摘要

4Q23 Performance:
- Revenue beat consensus by 2%, with livestreaming declining 32% YoY offset by other segments.
- Adjusted NPM at -124% (vs. consensus -139%).
- Bottom-line loss of RMB 190mn, better than consensus estimate of RMB 209mn.
- Declared special dividend of US$150mn and repurchased US$288mn shares.
Analyst Outlook:
- Maintain "BUY" rating with unchanged target price of US$68.
- Forecast margin improvement to 19% in FY24E, supported by operational efficiency and higher gross profit margin (GPM).
- Expect stable revenue growth in FY24E, driven by game monetization through partnerships (e.g., Tencent games).
Financial Forecasts (FY24E-FY26E):
- Revenue outlook remains stable with advertising and other revenues projected for triple-digit YoY growth.
- Earnings forecast slightly raised for FY24-25E (adj NP up to 1.8-5.2%).
- Gross margin increasing to 19.1-19.6%, operating margin to 3.0-3.7%.
- ROE improves to 0.1-2.4%.
Recommendation:
- Positive on fundamental improvement; attractive valuation benefits from dividend and share repurchase programs.