英文_Jefferies_外汇总结_美元走弱为2025年下半年前景带来顺风_16页_2mb

Jefferies Equity Research: US Chemicals Report Summary (June 13, 2025)

• F/X Impact: A weaker US dollar is expected to provide a 1.7% average sales tailwind for US chemical companies in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026, driven by policy changes. This also supports short-term US manufacturing growth, but policy-driven weakness benefits the sector less than global demand acceleration.

• Lead-lags and Trade Disruptions: The IFO index troughs are linked to 15-30% EU chemical rallies, with recent weakness suggesting a strong cyclical rebound. Belgian industrial confidence improving supports EU economic optimism and estimate revisions. Trade disputes may cause Q2 dislocations due to tariff-related pre-buy activities.

• Equity Market Effects: The dollar tends to stabilize after 10-15% moves; current consensus favors further weakening over 6-18 months due to US deficit, boosting MSCI cyclical sectors. A weaker dollar may drive outperformance by industry, excluding Utilities and Financials.

• Trade Dynamics: Weaker dollar reduces relative export prices; imports and retail spending are closely tied, with recent real import growth linked to inventory pressures post-COVID. A potential destock cycle risks if demand slows in 2025.

• Company Valuations: Key recommendations include BUY for AZZ, Air Products, Albemarle, etc., and HOLD for others like 3M and Dow. Risks involve analyst conflicts, disclosures, and market volatility.

The report emphasizes USD weakness as a positive for chemicals but cautions on inventory risks and trade uncertainties.