2010年-世界发展银行全球_Socio-Economic_Assessment_of_Broadband_Development_in_Egypt_135页_3mb

Socio-Economic Assessment of Broadband Development in Egypt

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive socio-economic assessment of broadband development in Egypt, focusing on its economic impact and policy recommendations. It is part of a World Bank Reimbursable Technical Assistance program aimed at supporting the Egyptian government in developing a broadband strategy.

Main Objectives

• To forecast the economic model of broadband diffusion in Egypt.
• To analyze the macroeconomic impact of broadband development.
• To evaluate broadband's impact on three intermediary sectors: education, job creation and IT-BPO, and the banking and financial sector.
• To propose strategic policy options to enhance broadband development and its economic impact.

Key Findings

Broadband Market Model

• The model forecasts broadband subscriber numbers and revenue for a 5-year period.

• The base-case scenario projects over 11 million broadband subscribers and US$ 3 billion in annual revenue by 2015.

• The base-case follows the current NTRA broadband policy, with 4 million mobile and 4 million fixed broadband subscribers by 2014.

• Rural broadband and fiber access are expected to reach only 200,000 and 300,000 subscriptions respectively.

• Total investment required over 5 years is projected at US$ 2.2 billion, split among different technology/market segments:

  • Rural Broadband: US$ 30 million
  • Urban Broadband: US$ 290 million
  • Fiber Access: US$ 330 million
  • DSL Rollout: US$ 510 million
  • Mobile Broadband: US$ 730 million
  • Independent Backhaul Network: US$ 300 million

• The cost per subscriber varies by technology:

  • Rural Broadband: US$ 218
  • Urban Broadband: US$ 198
  • Fiber Access: US$ 1,124
  • DSL: US$ 238
  • Mobile Broadband: US$ 199

• The model also includes worst-case (7 million subscribers) and best-case (17.5 million subscribers) scenarios, with revenue ranging from US$ 1.8 billion to US$ 4.5 billion.

Economic Impact

• Broadband development is expected to yield significant economic benefits for Egypt, including an estimated cumulative GDP contribution of US$ 5–42 billion for the 2010–2020 period.
• Job creation is projected to be between 25–36 thousand per year in the base-case and 13–50 thousand in other scenarios.
• The education sector is expected to benefit from the use of broadband to deliver 21st-century skills through digital content, cloud computing, and teacher collaboration platforms.
• The IT-BPO sector is already globally competitive in Egypt, with ITIDA estimating over US$ 1 billion in exports in 2010. Broadband expansion is expected to create new opportunities such as rural BPO and microwork.
• The banking and financial sector is likely to benefit from improved efficiency, increased productivity, and better access through extended ATM networks and online services.

Policy Recommendations

1. Remove entry barriers at the network and service level to foster competition, similar to models in Turkey, Chile, and the EU.
2. Provide additional spectrum for wireless broadband (e.g., 4G) to stimulate market growth and affordability.
3. Leverage fiber infrastructure from electricity and transport utilities to reduce backbone bottlenecks.
4. Implement an ambitious Ultra-Fast Broadband (UFB) Plan, including structural separation of active and passive infrastructure, and use of USO funds for rural areas.
5. Strengthen NTRA's role in anti-trust monitoring and market analysis to ensure a competitive environment.
6. Stimulate demand through targeted measures, such as accessibility, affordability, and attractiveness policies, to support broadband adoption.

Conclusion

The report highlights the potential of broadband to significantly transform Egypt's economy and key sectors. However, achieving these benefits requires a well-structured policy framework that addresses market barriers, promotes competition, and ensures equitable access. The proposed policy options aim to create an environment that supports efficient broadband diffusion and maximizes its socio-economic impact.