2016年-世界发展银行全球_An_Assessment_of_the_Short_Term_Impact_of_the_ECOWAS-CET_and_EU-EPA_in_Senegal_46页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Report: An Assessment of the Short Term Impact of the ECOWAS-CET and EU-EPA in Senegal

Core Content

This report evaluates the short-term impacts of the ECOWAS Common External Tariff (CET) and the EU-Economic Partnership Agreement (EU-EPA) on Senegal's economy, focusing on household welfare, firm profits, and the broader policy implications. The analysis is based on a partial equilibrium model using the World Bank's TRIST tool, which simulates the effects of the new tariff rates on prices, trade flows, and revenue.

Main Points

1. Nominal Protection

The CET leads to a slight increase in the trade-weighted average tariff from 6.0% to 6.3%, with higher nominal protection in sectors such as Fabricated metal products, Agriculture, and Machinery.
Conversely, the EU-EPA results in declining tariff protection across all sectors, with the weighted average tariff expected to fall to 4.7% by 2035.
Sectoral variations exist: some sectors like Tobacco, Motor vehicles, Coke, and Paper products see reductions in protection, while others like Radio and TV products see increases.

2. Trade and Revenue

The CET is expected to modestly reduce imports by -0.2% to -0.3%, with increased imports from ECOWAS partners (up to +4.1%) at the expense of trade with the EU and the rest of the world.
Tariff revenue increases by 1.8% to 4.7% under the CET, but declines significantly under the EU-EPA, reaching -21% to -25% by 2035.
Total government revenue is expected to be affected by -6.4% to -6.7% due to the EU-EPA, with EU imports increasing the most (+3.2% to +8.9%).

3. Household Effects

The CET increases the price of the average consumption bundle by 0.9% to 1.2%.
The EU-EPA reduces the price of the average consumption bundle by 0.5% to 0.9%, with a progressive impact—the poorest quintile sees the largest price declines.
The combined effect of CET and EU-EPA is almost neutral for the poorest income quintile, but slightly negative for others.

4. Firm Level Effects

The CET increases firm profits by 3.6% of sales, primarily due to higher output prices and lower input prices.
Profit gains are concentrated in 30% of firms at the top of the distribution, which produce goods under the 35% tariff band.
These profit gains are not evenly distributed, with only 10% of workers in firms that benefit significantly, while 75% of employment is in firms that lose out due to higher tariffs on inputs.
The EU-EPA leads to positive profit changes for 70% of firms, accounting for 85% of jobs, mainly through lower input and capital prices.
Losses occur in the Food and Beverages sector, which competes with EU imports.
While the CET boosts short-term profits, it may hinder long-term productivity. The EU-EPA, on the other hand, is associated with longer-term productivity growth due to better access to inputs and capital.

Key Elements of an Accompanying Strategic Policy Agenda

1. Competition Policy

Senegal has relatively competitive markets, but some sectors remain protected.
To ensure benefits from trade reforms, competition policy must be reinforced, including:
- Strengthening the National Competition Commission (NCC) in terms of equipment, capacity, and budget.
- Ensuring coordination with sector regulators and WAEMU.
- Implementing policy statements from 2014 related to institutional reform.

2. Access to Imported Inputs and Capital Goods

High effective tariffs on industrial inputs limit firm productivity.
The EU-EPA offers reduced protection for inputs and capital goods, which could improve firm performance.
It is crucial to properly design and implement existing incentive schemes like the Investment Code and Free Exporter Status (FES).
Improving import procedures and reducing customs delays is also essential, as Senegal lags in this area.

3. Integration with Global Value Chains (GVCs)

GVCs are seen as a key opportunity for Senegal to enhance global integration.
However, GVC trade requires a high-quality investment climate and supporting institutions.
APIX, ADPME, and ASEPEX should coordinate interventions, and ASEPEX should be strengthened in terms of human capital, management, equipment, and budget.
PREAC-2, a government plan to improve the business environment, should be finalized and implemented quickly and efficiently.
Commercial conflict resolution mechanisms must be improved to attract investors and sustain reforms.

4. Improving Key Backbone Services

Electricity and access to finance are two major constraints on competitiveness.
Electricity supply is irregular and costly, which needs to be reduced through cost-cutting policies and supply improvement.
Access to finance is a major challenge, with the private sector often unable to secure financing.
Institutions like FONSIS, FONGIP, and BNDE have been created to support access to finance, but they need to remain fully active.
Demand-side programs (e.g., SME training, account certification) should continue and expand to enhance productivity.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while the CET and EU-EPA are positive for trade liberalization and economic integration, their short-term impacts on households and firms are mixed. The CET may benefit some firms but harm others, especially those reliant on imported inputs. The EU-EPA is expected to reduce prices for consumers and boost firm productivity in the long run. However, complementary reforms are necessary to maximize the benefits of these trade agreements and minimize their adverse effects. These include strengthening competition policy, improving access to inputs, enhancing GVC integration, and developing backbone services like electricity and finance.

Key Information

CET (Common External Tariff): Adopted in 2013, implemented in 2015, with four tariff bands (later expanded to five).
EU-EPA: Signed in 2014, with a 20-year transition period for tariff elimination, offering reciprocal market access.
TRIST Tool: Used to simulate the impact of the CET and EU-EPA on prices, trade flows, and revenue.
Main concerns: Small formal private sector, infrastructure, human capital, innovation, and institutional quality.
Policy recommendations: Focus on competition policy, trade facilitation, GVC integration, and backbone services.