20171123-东英亚洲证券-中国擎天软件-01297.HK-Secured_bids_give_preview_for_2018__7页_420kb
报告摘要
Sinosoft Technology Group (1297 HK) - Equity Research Summary
Core Content
Sinosoft Technology Group Limited is a leading provider of application software products and solutions, focusing on export tax software, carbon management, and e-Government solutions. The company's recent performance and outlook have been analyzed in this report, highlighting its strategic initiatives, financial performance, and valuation.
Key Highlights
- Current Rating: BUY
- Target Price: HK$5.00 (revised from HK$5.30)
- Recent Performance: The company announced 5 major bids in 2H17, with total contract value estimated at 22.2% of FY17E revenue.
- Revenue Recognition: Revenue from these bids is expected to be recognized in 2H17 and 2018E.
- Key Projects:
- Establishing a public legal service network for the Ministry of Justice under the "12348 Legal Network of China".
- Yun Shang Jian Ye, a smart city project in Nanjing leveraging Ali Cloud, with Phase I value at RMB 33 million.
Financial Overview
| Metric | FY15A | FY16A | FY17E | FY18E | FY19E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 437 | 519 | 624 | 717 | 841 |
| Net Profit (RMB mn) | 160 | 191 | 230 | 273 | 332 |
| Diluted EPS (HK$) | 0.157 | 0.175 | 0.210 | 0.249 | 0.303 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 65.2 | 62.6 | 60.9 | 59.4 | 59.9 |
| Operating Margin (%) | 43.5 | 42.6 | 43.4 | 44.8 | 46.4 |
| Net Margin (%) | 36.5 | 36.9 | 36.9 | 38.1 | 39.4 |
| P/E (x) | - | 15.4 | 12.8 | 10.8 | 8.9 |
| P/B (x) | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Yield (%) | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| DPS (HK$) | 0.028 | 0.026 | 0.031 | 0.037 | 0.045 |
Earnings Revisions
| Metric | New | Old | % Change | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 624 | 647 | -3.5% | Slower growth in tax solutions |
| Gross Profit (RMB mn) | 380.1 | 408.7 | -7.0% | Lower margin for carbon management solutions |
| Gross Margin (%) | 60.9% | 63.2% | -2.3ppt | Lower margin for carbon management solutions |
| Opex (RMB mn) | -146.6 | -172.5 | -15.0% | Operating leverage |
| Net Profit (RMB mn) | 230 | 233 | -1.1% | Adjusted for slower tax-related services |
| Diluted EPS (HK$) | 0.210 | 0.212 | -0.8% | Adjusted for slower tax-related services |
Revenue Structure and Growth
| Segment | FY15A | FY16A | FY17E | FY18E | FY19E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax software and related services | 121 | 135 | 157 | 183 | 213 |
| e-Government solutions | 183 | 236 | 271 | 312 | 359 |
| Carbon management solutions | 87 | 99 | 152 | 178 | 225 |
| System integration solutions | 45 | 49 | 44 | 44 | 44 |
| Turnover (RMB mn) | 437 | 519 | 624 | 717 | 841 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 25.5 | 18.9 | 20.3 | 14.9 | 17.3 |
Risks
- Government delay in establishing carbon market and trading platform.
- Slower-than-expected growth in tax software and related services due to competition.
- Export recovery slower than expected, which could affect revenue growth.
Peer Group Comparison
| Company | Ticker | Price (HK$) | Mkt Cap (US$m) | Avg T/O (US$m) | PER Hist (x) | PER FY1 (x) | PER FY2 (x) | FY1 YoY% | FY2 YoY% | P/B (x) | P/B FY1 (x) | Net Margin (%) | Gross Margin (%) | ROE (%) | EV/EBITDA (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinosoft Technol | 1297 HK | 2.45 | 389 | 0.9 | 36.4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 20.0 | 18.6 | 2.59 | 2.39 | 36.9 | 60.9 | 20.3 | 62.6 |
| HSI | - | 30003.49 | - | - | 13.9 | 13.7 | 12.5 | 1.9 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 19.0 | 62.6 | 20.5 | 54.2 |
| HSCEI | - | 11958.63 | - | - | 9.5 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 15.4 | 62.6 | 20.5 | 24.0 |
| CSI300 | - | 4227.57 | - | - | 17.5 | 16.2 | 14.1 | 7.9 | 14.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 17.0 | 62.6 | 20.5 | 45.9 |
| Kingdee Intl Sft | 268 HK | 4.51 | 1,676 | 13.9 | 11.4 | 38.3 | 48.4 | 10.1 | 31.6 | 3.19 | 3.00 | 20.0 | 62.6 | 20.5 | 81.3 |
| Chinasoft Intl | 354 HK | 5.16 | 1,587 | 9.5 | 20.9 | 21.5 | 19.5 | 15.4 | 26.3 | 2.23 | 2.19 | 15.0 | 62.6 | 20.5 | 29.7 |
| Chanjet Info-H | 1588 HK | 12.60 | 350 | 0.2 | -228.2 | -228.2 | -7.7 | -14.6 | -7.7 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 15.0 | 62.6 | 20.5 | 83.3 |
| Yonyou Network-A | 600588 CH | 21.72 | 4,807 | 53.4 | 55.1 | 155.1 | 76.5 | 102.9 | 44.0 | 6.21 | 6.21 | 24.1 | 62.6 | 20.5 | 68.2 |
| Aisino Corp-A | 600271 CH | 22.15 | 6,236 | 36.3 | 10.1 | 26.7 | 27.0 | 13.6 | 7.7 | 4.18 | 4.18 | 15.0 | 62.6 | 20.5 | 16.8 |
| Neusoft Corp-A | 600718 CH | 15.72 | 2,953 | 45.2 | -25.2 | -25.2 | -4.3 | 72.4 | -4.3 | 2.48 | 2.48 | 24.1 | 62.6 | 20.5 | 30.0 |
| Taiji Computer-A | 002368 CH | 27.54 | 1,728 | 21.6 | 31.1 | 37.6 | 30.0 | 34.3 | 23.4 | 4.79 | 4.79 | 4.6 | 62.6 | 20.5 | 19.5 |
| China National-A | 600536 CH | 17.63 | 1,318 | 17.2 | 68.2 | 84.0 | 41.0 | 2336.5 | 53.2 | 4.78 | 4.78 | 0.0 | 62.6 | 20.5 | 38.7 |
Strategic Outlook
- The company is expected to benefit from the benchmark effect of its major projects, potentially driving more local government contracts.
- The tax solutions segment is anticipated to recover growth in 2018 with improving export indicators.
- The e-Government solutions segment has shown solid growth, which is expected to continue and offset some of the slower growth in tax-related services.
Conclusion
Despite the revised earnings and target price due to slower growth in certain segments, the BUY rating is reiterating based on the potential for future growth and the solid performance of the e-Government solutions segment. The company's financial metrics remain positive, and its strategic initiatives are seen as key drivers for future performance. Investors should consider the risks associated with government delays and competitive pressures in the tax software sector.
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