2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Turkey_Selected_Issue_68页_1mb

Summary of the IMF Paper on Turkey: Private Savings, Current Account Deficit, and Policy Options

Core Content

This IMF paper focuses on private sector savings in Turkey, analyzing developments, factors influencing the savings rate, and policy options to increase it. The paper is part of the background documentation for the IMF's periodic consultation with Turkey, completed on March 8, 2016. It also discusses minimum wage increases, non-financial corporate sector debt, and potential output in the context of Turkey's economic policy.

Main Developments in Private Savings

• Over the past 15 years, Turkey stabilized its macroeconomy, with public sector consolidation leading to a primary surplus of over 7% of GDP in 2004.
• Inflation dropped from nearly 70% in 2001 to single digits, and economic growth averaged around 7% between 2002–2007 and 5% between 2002–2015.
• However, the private sector saving rate declined significantly, from an average of 18% between 1998–2003 to 9% in 2013, and has remained below 13% since 2010.
• The public saving rate is around 3%, while the investment rate increased from 17% in 2002 to 20% in 2014.
• This has created a savings-investment gap, contributing to a current account deficit that averaged over 6.5% of GDP between 2010–2015.
• Capital inflows have been a major source of financing for this deficit.
• The net foreign asset position has deteriorated by 25% of GDP since 2008.

Factors Influencing the Private Sector Savings Rate

• Macroeconomic stabilization post-2001 crisis reduced economic uncertainty, which could lower the need for precautionary savings.
• Financial development and deepening increased access to consumer credit, which may have reduced the propensity to save.
• Demographic changes have played a role:
  • A high youth dependency ratio (49% of population under 30) and low old-age dependency ratio (8% over 64) suggest a demographic dividend.
  • As the youth dependency ratio decreases, private saving rates may rise.
  • As the old-age dependency ratio increases, private saving rates may fall.
• Urbanization and increased female labor participation have influenced saving behavior:
  • Urban dwellers tend to save less due to better access to social services and lower income volatility.
  • Female labor participation has increased, which is associated with higher household saving rates.
• Non-financial wealth (home ownership, gold) may act as a substitute for financial savings, especially with home ownership reducing the need for saving.
• Inflation and real interest rates are key factors:
  • High inflation increases precautionary savings.
  • Higher real interest rates encourage saving by making delayed consumption more attractive.
  • However, Ricardian equivalence suggests that higher public savings may reduce the need for private savings.

Policy Options to Raise Private Savings

• Measures to slow down credit growth:
  • Macroprudential tools have been used to control retail credit growth, which has slowed after their introduction.
  • Corporate credit growth remains high at 30% annually, but has decoupled from investment.
  • A 10 percentage point reduction in corporate credit growth could increase the private saving rate by 0.7 percentage points.
  • Risk-based measures such as increasing risk weights, debt service limits, and credit maturity restrictions could be used to manage corporate credit risk.
  • Differentiating between Lira and foreign exchange credit is important, as the risks differ.
• Incentives for equity financing:
  • A notional interest deduction for cash capital introduced in mid-2015 has shifted the balance between debt and equity financing in favor of equity.
  • This may reduce debt finance, but the impact on the overall saving rate is uncertain.

Key Conclusions

• The decline in private savings has contributed to a current account deficit and external vulnerability.
• Macroeconomic stabilization and financial deepening have had mixed effects on the saving rate.
• Demographic trends suggest a potential increase in the saving rate as the youth dependency ratio declines.
• Policy options are aimed at controlling credit growth and encouraging equity financing, with the goal of raising private savings.
• The paper does not focus on monetary policy but rather on fiscal and structural reforms to improve the savings rate.

References and Additional Notes

• The paper is part of a broader IMF consultation and draws on empirical studies from IMF (2007, 2014, 2015, 2016) and the World Bank (2014).
• Box 1 discusses pension reforms in selected countries.
• Box 2 covers severance pay reforms in selected countries.
• Box 3 outlines tax-preferred savings accounts in selected countries.
• The figure on replacement rates provides an international comparison of saving rates.
• References are included at the end of each section for further reading.

Appendix and Additional Analysis

• The appendix includes econometric specifications used in the analysis.
• The non-financial corporate sector debt section discusses stylized facts, data analysis, and implications of corporate debt.
• The potential output section explores growth drivers and policy implications for achieving higher potential output.

Summary

• Private savings in Turkey have declined significantly since 2003, leading to a current account deficit.
• Macroeconomic stabilization and financial deepening have played a key role in this decline.
• Demographic changes and urbanization are also important factors.
• Policy options include macroprudential measures and incentives for equity financing.
• The paper does not recommend a single policy, but presents a menu of options that could be combined for optimal results.
• The goal is to increase domestic savings, thereby reducing external vulnerabilities and improving long-term economic stability.