德国发展研究所-冠状病毒疾病是否改变了后工业化时代的长期前景？（英）-2021.11-49页_1mb

Summary of "Does COVID-19 Change the Long-Term Prospects of Latecomer Industrialisation?"

Core Content

This discussion paper, commissioned by UNIDO, examines the long-term implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prospects of latecomer industrialisation. It explores how the crisis interacts with ongoing global megatrends and evaluates the potential for inclusive and sustainable industrial development (ISID) in developing countries, particularly those that have not yet fully industrialised.

Main Megatrends Affecting Pre-COVID-19 Structural Transformation

The paper identifies three major global megatrends that have significantly shaped the industrial development landscape:

1. Digitalisation and Automation of Production

   • Encompasses technologies such as the internet of things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, 3D printing, and blockchain.
   • These technologies are transforming business models, increasing productivity, and altering competitive advantages.
   • They reduce transaction costs, enable customisation, and decrease the need for direct labor.
   • However, they also raise entry barriers, especially for countries with weak innovation systems and limited access to advanced skills and infrastructure.
   • Automation threatens to erode the traditional labor-cost advantages of latecomer economies.

2. Global Economic Power Shifts

   • The rise of East Asia and China has led to a significant shift in global economic power.
   • China's GDP per capita has grown substantially since 2000, increasing from 3,452 to 16,411 USD (PPP, 2019).
   • Asian economies, particularly China, have become dominant in global value chains (GVCs) and trade flows.
   • In contrast, other developing regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and Latin America have lagged behind, with lower GDP growth and smaller shares in global manufacturing value added (MVA).
   • The pandemic has highlighted the uneven development and the risks associated with over-reliance on global supply chains.

3. Greening of Economies

   • The global shift towards decarbonisation and sustainable development is reshaping industrial strategies.
   • Renewable energy and green hydrogen are becoming increasingly important, and many latecomer countries have favorable conditions for these industries.
   • Environmental standards and the need for economic diversification are driving changes in industrial policies and business models.
   • The trend towards telework is also reducing transport requirements, contributing to the greening of the economy.

Interdependence of Trends and Implications for ISID

These megatrends are interconnected and collectively influence structural transformation and industrial development. They create both opportunities and challenges for latecomer economies. For instance, while digital technologies offer new avenues for trade and production, they also pose risks of market concentration and exclusion of less developed economies. Similarly, the green transition provides potential for growth in certain sectors but may also require significant investment and adaptation.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The pandemic has not fundamentally altered these megatrends, but it may have accelerated or decelerated some of them:

• Digitalisation has likely intensified the shift towards online trading and automation, with both opportunities and risks for latecomer economies.
• Global economic power shifts have been reinforced, with China and other Asian economies recovering faster due to effective vaccination and fiscal stimulus, while other regions face slower recovery and potential long-term weakening of their market positions.
• Greening has seen modest acceleration due to public investments in green technologies, the exposure of oil-dependent economies to the risks of energy insecurity, and the trend towards telework.

Policy Recommendations for Building Back Better

The paper concludes with five key policy recommendations aimed at supporting inclusive and sustainable industrial development (ISID):

1. Fostering Economic Resilience through Diversification

   • Encourage economic diversification to reduce dependence on volatile sectors.
   • Leverage opportunities from digitalisation and global shifts to build resilient industrial systems.

2. Developing Pharmaceutical and Medical Supply Industries

   • Invest in domestic capabilities to produce essential medical goods, to better prepare for future pandemics.
   • This is critical both at the national and global levels.

3. Investing in Digital Capabilities

   • Strengthen digital infrastructure and skills to adapt to new business models.
   • Regulate platform economies to prevent monopolies and support local firms.

4. Strengthening Domestic Revenue Generation

   • Implement fiscal reforms that tax environmental “bads” and reduce harmful subsidies.
   • This can support the transition to green industries and enable social protection programs.

5. Harmonising Industrial Policies Globally

   • Promote international cooperation, especially in areas such as intellectual property rights and technology sharing.
   • This is essential for addressing global challenges like climate change and pandemics.

Key Findings

• The pandemic is unlikely to change the direction of long-term structural transformation, but may influence its speed and trajectory.
• Digitalisation and automation are likely to intensify, with implications for market concentration and labor dynamics.
• Global economic power is increasingly shifting towards Asia, with China playing a central role.
• The greening of economies is a slow but inevitable trend, with potential for latecomer countries to benefit from favorable conditions.
• Effective industrial policies and global cooperation are crucial for ensuring that latecomer economies can participate in and benefit from these trends.

Conclusion

While the pandemic has disrupted short-term economic activity, its long-term impact on industrialisation trends is expected to be limited. However, it has highlighted the need for more resilient, diversified, and sustainable industrial strategies, especially for latecomer economies. The paper provides a roadmap for policymakers to build back better by leveraging the opportunities presented by the ongoing megatrends and addressing the challenges they pose.