20240221-大越期货-聚烯烃早报_18页_691kb

报告摘要

Polyolefins Market Analysis Summary

LLDPE (Linear Low-Density Polyethylene)

Fundamentals: Overall neutral; crude oil prices fell overnight, JFe PMI contracted slightly, oil-based production profits at low levels; supply-side utilization low, with potential restarts expected; demand-side post-holiday recovery slow; inventory neutral due to moderate accumulation.
Basis: Neutral (2405合约基差28, 升贴水比例0.3%).
Inventory: Bearish (687万吨, +0).
Price Face: Bearish (主力合约20日均线走平, 结算价下方).
Position: Net long positions, moderately declining (偏多).
Outlook: Expected to oscillate weakly; cost support remains, but slow demand recovery is a key factor; high risk from crude oil volatility.

PP (Polypropylene)

Fundamentals: Overall neutral; similar to LLDPE with slow demand recovery; oil-based production profitability low; supply-side utilization low, net imports possible; inventory neutral.
Basis: Bearish (2405合约基差-76, 升贴水比例-10%).
Inventory: Slightly bullish (434万吨, -0, bias: 多).
Price Face: Bearish (主力合约20日均线走平, 结算价下方; similar pattern to LLDPE).
Position: Net long positions, moderately declining (偏多).
Outlook: Expected to oscillate weakly; strong cost support from oil, but slow demand dampens sentiment; risk from crude oil fluctuations.

Supply-Demand Balance

PE Trends: Capacity growth from 2018-2024E, with increasing imports and dependency, driven by rising production and consumption; inventories at end of period reflective of slow consumption.
PP Trends: Similar capacity expansion, import dependency high (e.g., 2023 consumption around 348M tons, residual -26% YoY); inventories inconsistently reported but overall capacity increases projected.

Overall Summary

The report indicates a neutral-to-bearish outlook for both LLDPE and PP, with LLDPE fundamentally neutral and PP fundamentals slightly positive due to inventory, while both face bearish price dynamics from slow demand recovery and oil price uncertainty. Key risks are crude oil volatility, and short-term expectations point to oscillating, weak trends.

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