IRENA-2023年世界能源转型展望：1.5°C路径（英）-2023.6-176页_6mb

World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023: 1.5°C Pathway Summary

Foreword
The document outlines a vision for transitioning to a 1.5°C-aligned energy system, emphasizing the urgency of accelerating renewable deployment and overcoming systemic barriers to achieve global climate goals. It highlights the need for integrated infrastructure, policy frameworks, and investment strategies to support inclusive and equitable energy transformation.

Executive Summary (Vol 1)

• Deployment Gap: Energy transition technologies (e.g., renewables, hydrogen, efficiency) are deployed at insufficient scales to meet the 1.5°C target. Global CO2 emissions must peak by 2030 and reach net-zero by 2050.
• Investment Needs: Cumulative investment required by 2050 is $150T (vs. $103T under the current Planned Energy Scenario). Average annual investment must quadruple to $5T.
• Key Challenges:
  • Renewable energy deployment is concentrated in developed regions (e.g., East Asia), excluding half the global population.
  • Fossil fuel subsidies ($5.6T globally in 2022) hinder progress, while private capital flows to lower-risk areas.
  • Policy gaps and fragmented infrastructure planning delay implementation.
• Urgency: Every fraction of a degree in global temperature rise has profound impacts, requiring immediate, systemic action.

Vol 1: Scope

• The report tracks global energy transitions to 2030–2050 under two scenarios: the 1.5°C-aligned pathway and the Planned Energy Scenario (current policies).
• Highlights energy transformation drivers, investment trends, and equity dimensions of the transition.

Vol 1: Chapter 1 – 1.5°C Climate Pathway and Progress

Highlights

• Electrification: Electricity generation must triple by 2050, with renewables accounting for 91%.
• Hydrogen Role: Clean hydrogen must scale to 14% of final energy consumption by 2050.
• Bioenergy: Unsustainable biomass use must decline; modern bioenergy supply must quadruple by 2050.
• Barriers: Policy uncertainty, fossil fuel subsidies, limited public finance, and geographic disparities impede progress.

Key Indicators

Key Barriers and Solutions

• Barriers (Figure S1):
  • Infrastructure gaps (e.g., grid expansion).
  • Policy inconsistencies (e.g., fossil fuel subsidies).
  • Workforce shortages in transition technologies.
• Solutions:
  • Dedicated permitting authorities, accelerated permitting processes for offshore wind.
  • National hydrogen strategies, carbon pricing.
  • Workforce development programs for renewables.

Vol 1: Chapter 2 – Sectoral Transformation Pathways

Highlights

Power Sector:

• Solar PV and wind dominate renewable growth; installed capacity to triple.
• Grid flexibility and storage investments averaging $0.8T/year through 2050.

Energy End-Uses:

• Buildings: Electrification increases electricity share to 73%, heat pumps deployed in millions.
• Transport: EVs represent 93% of road transport fleets by 2050; sustainable aviation fuels grow 350%.
• Industry: CCS and hydrogen deployment reduce emissions by 90% in G20 nations.

Policy Support Measures

• Auctions and feed-in tariffs to drive renewables deployment.
• Green public procurement for sustainable building materials.
• Biofuel blending targets for transport decarbonization.

Vol 1: Chapter 3 – Investments, Financing, and Policy Frameworks

Highlights

• Investment Trends: Renewable energy investments (2022: $1.3T) must quadruple by 2030.
• Financial Instruments: Debt dominates ($56% in 2020); grants and concessional loans only account for 1%.
• Equity Imperative: $47T additional investment needed by 2050, with more public finance directed to developing nations.

Key Recommendations

• Increase grant-based finance and policy-linked investments for high-risk regions.
• Use public-private partnerships and innovative instruments (e.g., carbon pricing) to crowd in private capital.
• Strengthen international co-operation for hydrogen certification and sustainable finance.

Key Takeaways for Global Collaboration

• Funding Disparities: Multilateral DFIs and public finance institutions must prioritize concessional loans for LDCs and SIDS.
• Standardization: Work toward global hydrogen certification frameworks to enable trade and investment.
• Synergy: Align renewable energy investments with critical mineral supply chains to avoid shortages.

Data Tables (Included in the original report)

• Table 1.1: Key performance indicators for 1.5°C Scenario vs. PES in 2030 and 2050.
• Table 2.X: Renewable energy deployment indicators (installations, grid capacity, Emissions abatement).
• Table 3.X: Investment breakdown by sector and region (2023–2050).

Conclusion
The 1.5°C pathway demands systemic transformation across policy, technology, and finance dimensions. Urgent, coordinated action—particularly in developing regions—is required to avoid stranded assets and ensure an inclusive energy future.