IMS-中国医疗市场预测2017-2021（英文）-20173-126页_1mb

Summary of IMS Market Prognosis: China (2017-2021)

Core Content

The IMS Market Prognosis report for China (2017-2021) provides a comprehensive overview of the pharmaceutical market, including forecasts, market dynamics, and regulatory changes. The report outlines the expected growth trajectory, key drivers, and challenges that will shape the market during the forecast period.

Main Points

Market Overview and Forecasts

• The Chinese pharmaceutical market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 6.9% (±2.5%) from 2016 to 2021, reaching RMB1,084.6 billion by 2021.
• The hospital sector (hospitals with more than 100 beds) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.9%, with sales projected to reach RMB692,166 million in 2021.
• The retail pharmacy sector (prefecture level and above) is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 4.8%, with sales expected to reach RMB98,789 million in 2021.
• The unaudited sector (including small hospitals, CHCs, and county-level retail pharmacies) is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.8%, with sales reaching RMB293,698 million in 2021.

Key Drivers of Growth

• Healthcare policy reforms under the 13th Five-Year Plan, including the expansion of health insurance coverage, improvements in chronic disease management, and the implementation of a tiered diagnosis and treatment system.
• Publication of the updated National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) in February 2017, which added 339 products, including 133 western medicines, and is expected to increase market access and volume.
• Expansion of insurance coverage for critical illnesses and urban-rural integration of basic medical insurance schemes.
• Rapid increase in chronic diseases and the long-term national plan to manage them.
• Improved drug approval processes and faster registration times, encouraging new product launches.
• Implementation of a 'negotiation list' for high-priced specialty drugs, expected to expand access to these products.

Challenges

• Tighter hospital budget controls will reduce drug budgets to below 30% of total hospital budgets.
• Pricing pressures will continue due to national-level price negotiations, provincial price cuts, and increased price transparency.
• Reimbursement standard implementation will favor quality-assessed generics over off-patent originators.
• Increased generic competition will pressure prices, especially in 2017, 2018, and 2020.
• Hospital cost containment measures will lead to a decrease in prescription volumes for non-reimbursed products.

Key Issues Affecting Market Growth

• Reimbursement coverage is expected to improve, especially for critical illnesses and chronic diseases.
• Health insurance expansion will enhance access to healthcare services.
• New product launches will contribute to market growth, supported by improved drug approval processes.
• Pricing pressures will intensify in the tender system, with increased competition from generics.
• Hospital drug budget controls will lead to a reduction in drug spending, impacting sales volumes.

Regulatory Environment

• Reforms to speed up drug approvals and reduce the backlog of applications are underway.
• Fast-track approval systems will accelerate the introduction of innovative drugs.
• Simplified clinical trial review procedures are expected to improve data quality and reduce approval times.
• Quality consistency evaluation for generics will be enforced, with 289 products on the essential drug list (EDL) required to pass by 2020.
• National price negotiations for patented drugs are expected to result in over 50% price reductions for some products.
• Compulsory licensing remains an option for the government to ensure access to patented drugs, though not yet implemented.

Pharmaceutical Business Environment

• Economic slowdown will continue to impact the market, but demand will remain strong.
• Approval times for innovative drugs are expected to shorten.
• Hospital cost containment will intensify, with aggressive purchasing practices and price transparency.
• Private sector growth will be encouraged, particularly in healthcare services and pharmaceuticals.
• Biosimilars market is expected to expand rapidly due to new regulatory guidelines.
• Digital marketing and e-detailing will become more prominent in sales and marketing strategies.
• Two-invoice system will streamline drug distribution and increase the number of distributors for manufacturers.

Forecasting Data and Methods

• Data sources include the China Hospital Pharmaceutical Audit (CHPA) and QuintilesIMS PharmaTrend data.
• Baseline forecasts were adjusted based on audit upgrades and volume trends.
• Exponential smoothing models were used to project audited retail pharmacy data.
• Unaudited sector growth was projected independently, with assumptions based on QuintilesIMS China analysis.
• Exchange rate forecasts were sourced from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), with the RMB expected to depreciate until 2019, then strengthen from 2020 to RMB7.08:US$1 by 2021.

Event Analysis

Positive Events

Negative Events

Conclusion

The report highlights a slow but steady growth in the Chinese pharmaceutical market, driven by healthcare reforms, improved drug approval processes, and expansion of insurance coverage. However, price pressures and hospital cost containment will continue to challenge growth, particularly in the hospital sector. The unaudited retail and small hospital sectors are expected to grow faster, with the retail sector projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.8% and the unaudited sector at 7.8%. The implementation of the NRDL and reimbursement standard will play a pivotal role in shaping market dynamics and access to pharmaceuticals.