2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Bangladesh_Progress_Report_180页_3mb

Summary of Bangladesh's Sixth Five Year Plan (2011-15) Mid-Term Implementation Review

Core Content

This document provides a mid-term implementation review (MTIR) of Bangladesh's Sixth Five Year Plan (SFYP) for the period 2011-15, with a focus on progress made in key areas such as economic growth, employment, poverty reduction, macroeconomic management, sectoral performance, infrastructure development, human resource development, and governance. The review is prepared by the Planning Commission in consultation with stakeholders and development partners, including the World Bank and IMF.

Main Viewpoints

1. Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation (RBME)

• The SFYP introduced RBME for the first time, aligning with indicative planning.
• A first implementation review was conducted in July 2012 using the Results Framework (RF).
• The review highlighted the need to refine the RF for better alignment with the Plan's goals and for long-term institutional progress.
• A Proposed Results Framework (PROPOSED RF) was suggested for future use.

2. Economic Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction

• Overall performance in achieving development targets is positive.
• The economy is transitioning from a rural-based agrarian economy to a more modern urban-based manufacturing and services economy.
• Export performance is on track, boosting the manufacturing sector.
• GDP growth targets were not fully met due to global economic slowdown and lower-than-expected private investment.
• Overseas employment offset some domestic employment shortfalls but is expected to slow down due to challenges in Middle Eastern markets.
• Political instability in 2013-2014 affected domestic economic activity.
• The public investment rate is lower than planned, and the average GDP growth rate is projected to fall below 7% for the remaining period of the Plan.

3. Macroeconomic Management

• Prudent macroeconomic management has been maintained and strengthened.
• Key indicators such as tax-to-GDP ratio, fiscal deficit, export growth, and external debt management are on track.
• Inflation remains higher than the target of 6%, reaching 7.3% in 2014, due to excessive monetary growth and commodity price instability.
• Fiscal policy implementation faces challenges, including uncertainty in revenue projections, slow progress on tax modernization, and reduced spending in priority areas due to fiscal urgency.
• Procurement issues, particularly land acquisition, have slowed major infrastructure projects.
• Public-private partnership (PPP) in infrastructure has not achieved the desired momentum.

4. Sectoral Growth Performance

• The manufacturing sector grew faster than agriculture and informal services, but slightly below the FY11-13 target of 9.7% (9.4% actual).
• Agriculture growth was 1% point below target, and services growth was also 1% point slower than projected.
• Non-RMG manufacturing and services exports have not expanded as expected.
• Trade policy is seen as biased against non-RMG exports, requiring revision to support diversification.

5. Infrastructure Development

• The power sector saw significant progress, with electricity generation capacity increasing by 65% from FY10 to FY13, reaching 9598 MW.
• Access to electricity improved from 47% to 62%, and per capita consumption rose from 170 KWh to 285 KWh.
• However, the marginal cost of electricity increased due to reliance on expensive rental plants and reduced domestic production of gas and coal.
• The transport sector lagged behind, with performance in roads, bridges, railways, and ports below expectations.
• A large number of projects remain under implementation, and the government needs to improve efficiency and prioritize key initiatives.

6. Human Resource Development

• Progress was made in education, health, population, and nutrition.
• Education sector saw improvements in development budget allocation and implementation.
• Health and population programs faced challenges in meeting targets due to fiscal constraints and implementation issues.
• Nutrition programs also showed some progress but require more focus and resources.

7. Poverty Reduction, Gender Empowerment, Social Inclusion and Social Protection

• Poverty reduction efforts showed progress, though the rate was slower than expected.
• Gender empowerment initiatives made some headway, but more work is needed.
• Social inclusion and protection programs require greater investment and policy support.

8. Sustainable Development

• Environmental management and climate change policies were introduced, but implementation remains weak.
• Disaster management programs showed some achievements, but the country is still vulnerable to natural disasters.
• There is a need for stronger institutional capacity and policy reforms in these areas.

9. Governance and Institutions

• Governance improvements were part of the SFYP strategy, but progress has been limited.
• Political instability and inefficiencies in public administration have affected implementation.
• There is a need for better policy implementation, institutional reforms, and increased transparency.

Key Information

• The SFYP aimed to achieve 8% GDP growth by FY15, focusing on manufacturing and services growth.
• The government has made progress in power generation and infrastructure development but faces challenges in fiscal management, PPP implementation, and export diversification.
• The review highlights the need for a more dynamic and efficient approach to managing public and private investments, as well as a stronger focus on non-RMG manufacturing and services.
• Institutional capacity and policy coherence are critical for the success of the SFYP and future planning.

Recommendations

• Improve the investment climate by deregulating, enhancing trade logistics, and addressing power and gas shortages.
• Accelerate tax modernization and increase public investment to meet the SFYP targets.
• Revamp PPP initiatives with better institutional and technical capacity.
• Focus on labor skills and training to boost employment.
• Diversify exports beyond RMG and support SMEs with better policies and financing.
• Enhance energy security by promoting domestic gas and coal production.
• Improve transport infrastructure prioritization and implementation efficiency.
• Strengthen human resource development in education, health, and nutrition.
• Address fiscal constraints and improve the implementation of social protection and disaster management programs.
• Institutional reforms and policy coherence are needed to support long-term development goals.