2014年-世界发展银行全球_Food_Security_and_Storage_in_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_26页_361kb

Summary of "Food Security and Storage in the Middle East and North Africa"

Core Content

This paper explores the use of strategic wheat storage as a tool to mitigate the impact of high and volatile international wheat prices on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It presents a dynamic competitive storage model under rational expectations to assess the effectiveness and cost implications of such policies.

Main Points

• Food Price Volatility and Poverty: High and volatile food prices, especially for wheat, can severely impact the poor, who spend a large share of their income on food. This has raised concerns about food security in the region.

• Import Dependency: Wheat is a staple in the MENA diet, and the region relies heavily on imports. For instance, in 2005–2007, Libya imported 98% of its wheat, and wheat accounted for 40% of its calories. Similar import dependency is observed in other MENA countries.

• Strategic Storage as a Solution: Strategic reserves can help keep domestic prices below a targeted level during price spikes. The paper suggests that setting a high target price with adequate reserves makes this strategy effective and robust.

• Counter-Cyclical Nature: Unlike most interventions, strategic storage policies are counter-cyclical, meaning they reduce global price volatility rather than increasing it. This is particularly beneficial for the region, which is a major importer of wheat.

• Cost Considerations: Strategic storage is more costly than procyclical policies, such as targeted transfers (e.g., food stamps), which can be less expensive but still effective in reducing the domestic impact of price increases.

• Global Significance of MENA: MENA is a critical player in the global wheat market, importing over 29% of all wheat exports between 2008 and 2010. The region's growing population and constrained water resources are expected to increase its reliance on imports.

• Policy Experience: Historically, commodity stabilization policies have been used to manage price fluctuations, but they have often been difficult to implement and manage due to budgetary and political constraints. Despite this, some countries have maintained strategic reserves.

• Model Overview: The paper uses a numerical model to simulate the effects of strategic storage on domestic and global prices. The model incorporates rational expectations and considers both spatial and temporal arbitrage conditions.

Key Information

• Strategic Storage Mechanism: Strategic storage policies aim to stabilize domestic prices by releasing reserves during price spikes. The model suggests that these policies are effective when target prices are high and reserves are sufficient.

• Cost and Effectiveness: While strategic storage can reduce domestic price variability, it is more costly than targeted subsidies. The cost-effectiveness trade-off is an important consideration for policymakers.

• Regional Impact: The region's large share of global wheat stocks (over 13% between 2008 and 2010) means that its storage decisions have a significant impact on global markets.

• Empirical Evidence: Food price shocks have a strong transmission effect to domestic prices, with international price changes explaining up to 50% of food inflation in some countries.

• Model Assumptions: The model assumes a common market with unified policies, and it abstracts from political and technical barriers to implementation. It also treats wheat as a homogeneous product, allowing trade to be determined by spatial arbitrage conditions.

• Limitations: The model does not account for trade disruptions, which can occur due to political events or natural disasters. These disruptions can significantly affect import prices and the effectiveness of strategic storage.

Conclusion

The paper highlights the importance of strategic wheat storage in the MENA region for food security, especially given the region's heavy reliance on imported wheat. While the strategy can be effective in mitigating price spikes, it is more costly than alternative policies. The model provides a framework for evaluating the impact of such policies and suggests that regional cooperation and investment in infrastructure could enhance the effectiveness of food security measures.