战略与国际研究中心-Stability-in-the-Middle-East-and-North-Africa_-The-Other-Side-of-Security_121页_4mb

报告摘要

Stability in the Middle East and North Africa: The Other Side of Security

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the stability and security challenges in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, emphasizing that stability is not solely a function of political systems or economic growth, but is deeply influenced by the perception of security, economic conditions, and governance. It highlights the importance of addressing the people's grievances and improving their living conditions as essential steps toward long-term stability.

Main Points

No Single Middle East: The region is diverse with significant differences in governance, economic conditions, and social structures.
Economic and Social Factors: Economic growth is moderate compared to other regions, and there are persistent issues such as youth bulge, unemployment, and inflation.
Oil Wealth and Economic Dependency: Oil wealth varies significantly across countries, with some having high per capita income, while others struggle with economic inequality.
Security and Governance Challenges: There are concerns about the effectiveness of security forces, police, and the rule of law, including issues of corruption, arbitrary detention, and lack of transparency.
Democracy and Political Participation: Political systems vary, with some countries having higher levels of democracy and others being more repressive. Voter participation is low in some regions, indicating public apathy.
Perceptions of Security and Stability: Citizens' perceptions of security are shaped by a range of factors, including economic conditions, political instability, and personal safety.
Civil Challenges: The lack of peaceful political alternatives, ethnic and sectarian divisions, and the failure to meet basic needs contribute to instability.
Inflation and Unemployment: Inflation and unemployment rates are significant concerns, especially in the context of rising food and energy prices.

Key Information

Country Overview

Country	Leader	Date of Accession	Population (millions)	Population under 25 (%)	GDP per capita (USD)	Democracy	Corruption	Press Freedom
Algeria	Abdulaziz Bouteflika	1999	35.9	47.5	8.2	125	105	141
Bahrain	King Hamad bin Essa Al-Khalifa	1999	1.2	43.9	24.0	122	48	153
Egypt	Muhammed Tantawi (acting)	2011	84.6	52.3	5.9	138	98	130
Iraq	Nuri Al-Maliki	2006	31.4	60.6	4.0	111	175	144
Jordan	King Abdullah II	1999	6.4	54.3	5.2	117	50	140
Kuwait	Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah	2006	3.5	37.7	40.6	114	54	115
Lebanon	Michel Suleyman	2008	4.3	42.7	13.4	86	127	115
Libya	Muhammad Qadafi	1969	6.5	47.4	18.7	158	146	192
Morocco	King Mohammed VI	1999	32.4	47.7	4.7	116	85	146
Oman	Sultan Qaboos	1970	3.3	51.5	23.3	143	41	153
Palestinian Territories	Mahmoud Abbas/Ismail Haniyeh	2005/06	4.1	64.4	2.9	93	na	181
Qatar	Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani	1995	1.7	33.8	66.9	137	19	146
Saudi Arabia	King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al-Saudi	2005	27.1	50.8	22.9	160	50	178
Syria	Bashar Assad	2000	22.5	55.3	4.7	152	127	178
Tunisia	Mohamed Gannouchi	2011	10.4	42.1	8.6	144	59	186
UAE	Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al-Nahyan	2004	6.7	31.0	27.2	148	28	153
Yemen	Ali Abdullah Saleh	1978	24.3	65.4	2.9	146	146	173

Oil Wealth

Country	Nominal (Billion $)	Real (Billion 2005$)
Algeria	$42 (2009), $50 (Jan-Nov 2011)	$38 (2010), $44 (Jan-Nov 2011)
Iran	$53 (2009), $64 (Jan-Nov 2011)	$48 (2010), $57 (Jan-Nov 2011)
Iraq	$38 (2009), $43 (Jan-Nov 2011)	$34 (2010), $38 (Jan-Nov 2011)
Kuwait	$45 (2009), $52 (Jan-Nov 2011)	$40 (2010), $46 (Jan-Nov 2011)
Libya	$34 (2009), $39 (Jan-Nov 2011)	$31 (2010), $35 (Jan-Nov 2011)
Nigeria	$46 (2009), $60 (Jan-Nov 2011)	$41 (2010), $53 (Jan-Nov 2011)
Qatar	$24 (2009), $33 (Jan-Nov 2011)	$21 (2010), $29 (Jan-Nov 2011)
Saudi Arabia	$153 (2009), $184 (Jan-Nov 2011)	$137 (2010), $162 (Jan-Nov 2011)
UAE	$53 (2009), $61 (Jan-Nov 2011)	$47 (2010), $53 (Jan-Nov 2011)

Political Stability and Democracy

Political Stability: The document highlights the need for inclusive political decision-making and the importance of addressing popular grievances.
Democracy Index: Countries like Tunisia and Libya showed progress, while others like Syria and Saudi Arabia remained highly repressive.
Voter Participation: Voter turnout is generally low, indicating a lack of engagement with the political process.

Rule of Law and Security Forces

Rule of Law: The Arab countries lag behind other regions in terms of rule of law, with issues such as legal impartiality and popular observance of the law being major concerns.
Security Forces: There are significant problems with the professionalism and integrity of security forces, including corruption, arbitrary detention, and extreme interrogation.

Economic Indicators

GDP Growth: Regional GDP growth is relatively low, with some countries like Algeria and Yemen experiencing high inflation rates.
Unemployment: Unemployment rates are high, particularly in countries with significant youth populations.
Inflation: Inflation has been a persistent issue, with notable spikes in food and energy prices affecting all income levels.

Perceptions of Security

Citizen Perceptions: Citizens in the region have varied perceptions of security, influenced by economic conditions, political stability, and personal safety.
Key Threats: Economic conditions, government failure, and corruption are major sources of insecurity for many citizens.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for governments to address the root causes of instability, including economic disparities, governance failures, and lack of political freedom. It advocates for a focus on the people's needs, improving transparency, and ensuring that security forces operate within the rule of law. The key takeaway is that stability in the MENA region is not solely a matter of political change but requires a comprehensive approach that includes economic reform, social development, and improved governance.

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