战略与国际研究中心-A-Stronger-Second-Mandate-for-Erdogan-and-the-JDP_6页_197kb

2007 Turkish Parliamentary Elections Summary

Core Content

The July 22, 2007 Turkish parliamentary elections marked a decisive victory for the Justice and Development Party (JDP), reinforcing its position as the dominant political force in Turkey. The JDP secured 46.5% of the vote and 341 seats in the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA), increasing its support by 12 percentage points and 5.5 million votes compared to the 2002 elections. This result demonstrated the party's resilience and effectiveness in governance, despite opposition fears of its Islamist roots.

Main Points

• JDP's Strength: The JDP's victory was attributed to its strong grassroots organization, effective political messaging, and the personal appeal of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. His charisma and leadership played a crucial role in consolidating the party's dominance.

• Election Campaign: The campaign was notable for its relative calm and predictability, contrasting with the earlier crisis and speculation about potential military or judicial interference. This stability was a key factor in the JDP's success.

• Economic Message: The JDP focused on economic stability and growth, emphasizing the benefits of its policies and contrasting them with the economic difficulties of the previous period. This message was amplified by domestic and foreign media and investors.

• Secularism Debate: The JDP's campaign also highlighted the perceived injustice of the failed presidential bid for Abdullah Gul, which was seen as an attempt by secular forces, possibly with military support, to block the will of the people. This resonated with both devout and less observant voters.

• Opposition Weakness: The opposition, particularly the Republican People's Party (RPP) and National Action Party (NAP), struggled to present a compelling alternative. The RPP, led by Deniz Baykal, saw a minimal increase in its vote share and lost significant seats, indicating a lack of clear policy and appeal. The NAP, while gaining 14% of the vote, failed to make a major impact due to its focus on foreign influence and PKK terrorism.

• Future Challenges: The JDP's success comes with new challenges, including managing relations with the Turkish General Staff (TGS), the European Union (EU), and the United States (US). The TGS's stance on the new government and the potential for renewed tensions over the presidency and PKK issue will be critical.

Key Information

• Vote Share and Seats:

  • JDP: 46.5% (341 seats)
  • RPP: 20.8% (112 seats)
  • NAP: 14.3% (70 seats)
  • Independent Kurds (DEHAP): 4.8% (22 seats)
  • DP (TPP): 5.4% (0 seats)
  • YP: 3% (0 seats)
  • CP: 2.3% (0 seats)
  • Other Independents: 4% (0 seats)

• Erdogan's Leadership: Erdogan's personal influence and leadership were central to the JDP's success. His confidence and ability to connect with voters were evident throughout the campaign.

• Political Implications: The JDP's victory is seen as a test of democracy, with the campaign avoiding dangerous polarization. However, it did not lead to a new national consensus on secularism and religion.

• Foreign Relations: Erdogan will need to navigate complex relationships with the EU and the US, particularly regarding Turkey's EU membership and potential military actions against the PKK.

Conclusion

The JDP's strong showing in the 2007 elections solidified its position as the leading party in Turkish politics. While it has demonstrated its ability to govern effectively and maintain public support, it now faces significant challenges in maintaining stability and forging new political alliances. The future of Turkish politics will depend on how the JDP handles these challenges and how its rivals respond.