战略与国际研究中心-The-JDP-Failure-to-Elect-a-President-Triggers-a-New-Test-for-Turkish-Democracy_5页_165kb

Summary of the JDP Failure to Elect a President and Its Impact on Turkish Democracy

Core Content

The failure of the Justice and Development Party (JDP) to elect a new president in Turkey in 2007, despite its parliamentary majority, triggered a significant political crisis. This event, reminiscent of the 1980 military intervention, posed a new test for Turkish democracy. The crisis was marked by the Constitutional Court's unprecedented involvement, the Turkish General Staff's (TGS) warning, and mass demonstrations against the JDP's perceived threat to secularism.

Main Points

• Presidential Election Crisis: The JDP, led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, initially aimed to secure the presidency for Abdullah Gul within the existing parliament. However, the Constitutional Court nullified the vote, and Gul eventually withdrew his candidacy.
• Military Involvement: The TGS expressed concern over the erosion of secularism, signaling a potential return to military influence in politics. This was a stark contrast to the JDP's earlier efforts to distance itself from the military.
• Erdogan's Decision: Despite the opposition's warnings, Erdogan initially refused to run for president. After internal party pressure and polls indicating potential electoral losses, he eventually supported Gul, but this was not enough to secure the presidency.
• Early Parliamentary Elections: The JDP pushed for early elections on July 22, which was a strategic move to avoid the automatic elections that would have followed the failure to elect a president by May 15.
• Political Shifts: The crisis led to the formation of a new alliance between the True Path Party (TPP) and the Motherland Party (MP), which would challenge the JDP under the Democrat Party banner. The Republican People's Party (RPP) also sought to capitalize on the situation by aligning with the Democratic Left Party.

Key Information

• Erdogan's Leadership: Erdogan, known for his charismatic leadership and populist appeal, faced his first major political setback. His decision to support Gul was seen as a hasty move to regain lost prestige.
• Secularism Concerns: The opposition and secularist groups viewed the JDP's potential presidential candidate, Mrs. Erdoğan, as a threat to Turkey's secular institutions. This concern was amplified by the symbolic implications of her wearing an Islamic headscarf in the Cankaya Palace.
• Constitutional Court Role: The Constitutional Court's intervention was a critical turning point, as it nullified the presidential election process, highlighting the judiciary's role in Turkish politics.
• Military Threats: The TGS's warning signaled a potential return to military involvement in the political process, raising fears of another coup.
• JDP's Strategy: The JDP's push for early elections and constitutional amendments, such as direct presidential elections, was seen as a reactive measure to restore its political standing.
• Nationalist Rhetoric: The JDP attempted to bolster its nationalist credentials by emphasizing its stance on Turkey's relationship with the EU and the U.S., as well as its anti-Kurdish separatist stance.
• Geopolitical Implications: The crisis highlighted the importance of Turkish democracy for its international allies, particularly the EU and the U.S., who expressed support for the democratic process and opposition to military interference.

Conclusion

The JDP's failure to elect a president in 2007 exposed deep divisions within Turkish society and underscored the challenges of maintaining secularism in a rapidly changing political landscape. The crisis not only tested the resilience of Turkish democracy but also highlighted the need for a new national consensus that could reconcile the demands of devout citizens with the concerns of secularists. The outcome of the subsequent parliamentary elections would be crucial in determining the future of the Turkish political system and its relationship with the West.