2022-11-22-莱坊-UK_CRE_Quarterly_Review_November_2022_36页_9mb

报告摘要

UK CRE Quarterly Review Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the UK commercial real estate (CRE) market across various sectors, including Capital Markets, Offices, Industrial & Distribution, Retail & Leisure, and Specialist Sectors. It outlines the economic update, investment trends, and occupational market dynamics for Q3 2022 and provides forecasts for 2023 and beyond.

Economic Update

Global Economy

World GDP Output: Global growth is expected to moderate further in 2023, with the IMF forecasting a 2.7% growth rate, down from 3.2% in 2022.
US and Euro Area: US GDP growth is projected to be 1.6% in 2022, down from the July forecast, while the Euro Area's growth is revised upwards to 3.1% for 2022. For 2023, both regions are expected to grow at 1.0% and 0.5%, respectively.
Inflation: Persistent inflation pressures continue globally, with the US experiencing a 7.7% inflation rate in October 2022 and the Euro Area hitting a record 10.7%.

UK Economy

UK GDP Output: The UK economy contracted by -0.2% in Q3 2022, its first contraction in a year and a half, but better than market expectations. The Bank of England forecasts a -1.5% GDP decline in 2023 and -1.0% in 2024.
Business Activity: The UK Composite PMI fell to 48.2 in October 2022, remaining in contractionary territory. Manufacturing and Services PMIs also declined.
Inflation: UK inflation reached a 41-year high of 11.1% in October 2022, up from 10.1% in September.

Capital Markets

Investment Trends

UK CRE Investment: Total investment in Q1-Q3 2022 was £47.7 billion, a 14% increase compared to the same period in 2021 and 36% above the long-term average.
Q3 Investment: Investment volumes in Q3 2022 totaled £13.3 billion, a 6% decline from Q3 2021.
Sector Breakdown: Specialist sectors accounted for 48% of total investment in Q3, followed by Industrial (23%) and Offices (20%). Retail had the lowest share at 9%.
Cross-border Investors: Contributed 38% of Q3 investment volumes, up from 20% in Q3 2021 and 26% in Q3 2020.

Outlook

Investor Focus: Investors are expected to prioritize core, liquid assets and locations with attractive yields relative to the cost of debt. Sustainable buildings and counter-cyclical sectors like affordable housing may also see increased interest.
Yield Adjustments: Prime yields have been raised by 25 basis points due to higher financing costs. There is an anticipated shortage of new and refurbished buildings by 2026.

Offices

Investment Market

City Offices: Investment volumes rose by 33.2% to £2.0 billion in Q3, with the largest deal being 21 Moorfields at £809 million. Prime yields increased to 4.5%.
West End Offices: Investment volumes were £1.30 billion, below the long-term average. Prime yields rose to 3.50%, with a significant shift in pricing. Institutional investors were the largest group.
Docklands & Stratford: Take-up increased by 420% compared to the previous quarter, reaching 300,962 sq ft. Prime rents rose for the second consecutive quarter.
South East Offices: Investment volumes reached £652 million in Q3, 15% above the long-term average. Cambridge was the most active market outside the South East.

Occupational Market

City & Southbank: Take-up of 1.18 million sq ft, with 60% for new and refurbished space. Vacancy rate dropped to 5.7%, below the long-term average.
West End: Take-up of 1.17 million sq ft, with 59% for new and refurbished buildings. Vacancy rate fell to 5.7%, with prime availability declining.
Docklands & Stratford: Take-up of 300,962 sq ft, with 40% from financial services. Vacancy rate rose to 15.2%, above the trend rate.
South East: Take-up of 591,000 sq ft, the highest Q3 total since 2019. Cambridge saw the highest take-up with 118,000 sq ft.
UK Cities: Take-up of 1.25 million sq ft, a 13% increase compared to the previous quarter. Manchester and Birmingham stood out with above average take-up.

Industrial & Distribution

Investment Market

Q3 Investment: Total investment in Q3 was £3.0 billion, bringing the YTD total to £10.9 billion, which is 12% below the 2021 level.
Market Overview: Annual capital growth slowed to 15.4% in September, and total return fell to 19.6%, down from 27.7% in August. Industrial and logistics assets continue to outperform other sectors.
Key Deals: The sale of Project George to GIC Real Estate for £425 million and the Zeus Portfolio exchange for £234 million.

Occupational Market

Market Overview: Average rents for UK industrial properties grew at 12.9% annually, down from 13.2% in the previous month. Rising yields and interest rates are affecting liquidity and credit conditions.
Take-up Trends: Demand for space remains strong, with built-to-suit and speculative developments dominating the market. New supply is limited due to high development costs.

Key Information

Investment Trends: Q3 2022 saw a slowdown in investment compared to previous quarters, but overall, the year-to-date total remains robust.
Yield Movements: Prime yields across various sectors have increased, reflecting higher financing costs and tighter market conditions.
Occupier Demand: There is a continued focus on high-quality, prime spaces, especially in London and Cambridge.
Supply Constraints: Limited new supply, particularly in prime locations, is creating rental imbalances and opportunities for developers.
Geopolitical and Economic Factors: Inflation, interest rates, and global economic conditions are significantly influencing market dynamics and investor behavior.