2024年可再生能源发电成本（英）_216页_53mb

报告摘要

Summary of Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024

Core Content

This report, published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in 2025, provides a comprehensive analysis of renewable power generation costs in 2024. It highlights the cost competitiveness of renewable energy sources, their technological advancements, and the challenges that may affect future cost reductions and deployment.

Main Points

Renewables Dominance: In 2024, renewable power generation continued to be the most cost-competitive option for new electricity generation. 91% of newly commissioned utility-scale renewable projects delivered electricity at a lower cost than the cheapest new fossil fuel alternatives.
Affordable Technologies: Onshore wind remained the most affordable source of new power generation, with a global weighted average LCOE of USD 0.034/kWh. Solar PV followed at USD 0.043/kWh, and hydropower at USD 0.057/kWh.
Cost Declines: Over the past decade, total installed costs (TIC) for major renewable technologies have declined sharply. In 2024, solar PV TIC reached USD 691/kW, onshore wind USD 1041/kW, and offshore wind USD 2852/kW.
Stabilising Prices: After a period of steep cost declines, solar and wind prices have begun to stabilise, indicating market maturity. Emerging enabling technologies, such as battery storage, continue to experience rapid cost reductions.
Battery Storage: The cost of utility-scale battery storage dropped to USD 192/kWh in 2024, a 93% decline since 2010, driven by manufacturing scale-up and improved production efficiencies.
Economic Impact: Renewables helped avoid USD 467 billion in fossil fuel costs in 2024, highlighting their strategic value for energy security and economic stability.
Regional Variations: China and Brazil had the lowest LCOE for onshore wind, while China and India reported below-average LCOE for solar PV. Asia's average offshore wind LCOE was slightly lower than Europe's.
Future Projections: Over the next five years, TIC for solar PV is expected to reach USD 388/kW, onshore wind USD 861/kW, and offshore wind USD 2316/kW.
Challenges: Short-term risks include geopolitical tensions, supply chain bottlenecks, trade barriers, and financing challenges in capital-constrained markets. Permitting delays and grid infrastructure constraints also hinder deployment in some regions.
Enabling Technologies: Battery storage and digital solutions are becoming increasingly important in enabling grid integration and improving the economic performance of renewable projects.
Grid Integration: Integrating more variable renewables into the grid may increase short-term costs, but hybrid projects combining solar, wind, storage, and digitalisation are enhancing economic performance and integration.

Key Information

IRENA's Role: IRENA tracks and analyses renewable energy costs, serving as a platform for international cooperation and a repository of renewable energy knowledge.
Methodology: IRENA uses a linear optimisation approach to estimate the effective capacity factor (ECF) for hybrid systems and calculates learning rates to project cost trends.
Data Sources: The report includes data from various countries and regions, with detailed breakdowns of total installed costs, capacity factors, and LCOE for different technologies.
Cost Components: The report provides insights into the breakdown of costs for different components in renewable projects, including balance of system (BoS) and operations and maintenance (O&M) costs.
Market Trends: The report outlines trends in renewable energy markets, including technological advancements, supply chain developments, and regional deployment patterns.

Technology-Specific Insights

Onshore Wind

TIC: Declined to USD 1041/kW in 2024.
Capacity Factor: Improved significantly, with global weighted average reaching around 35-45%.
O&M Costs: Continued to decrease, with global weighted average O&M costs at USD 0.016/kWh.
LCOE: Global weighted average LCOE at USD 0.034/kWh.
Top Markets: China and Brazil had the lowest LCOE, indicating mature markets and efficient supply chains.

Solar PV

TIC: Declined to USD 691/kW in 2024.
Capacity Factor: Global weighted average reached around 18-25%.
O&M Costs: Global weighted average O&M costs at USD 0.013/kWh.
LCOE: Global weighted average LCOE at USD 0.043/kWh.
Top Markets: China and India had the lowest LCOE, reflecting significant cost reductions and technological advancements.

Hydropower

TIC: Declined to USD 1411/kW in 2024.
Capacity Factor: Global weighted average reached around 40-50%.
O&M Costs: Global weighted average O&M costs at USD 0.018/kWh.
LCOE: Global weighted average LCOE at USD 0.057/kWh.
Regional Variations: Large hydropower projects in Europe and Asia showed varying LCOE, with Europe generally having higher costs.

Geothermal

TIC: Declined to USD 1867/kW in 2024.
Capacity Factor: Global weighted average around 20-30%.
O&M Costs: Global weighted average O&M costs at USD 0.022/kWh.
LCOE: Global weighted average LCOE at USD 0.069/kWh.
Cost Reductions: Geothermal LCOE decreased by 16% since 2010, driven by technological improvements and operational efficiencies.

Bioenergy

TIC: Declined to USD 1668/kW in 2024.
Capacity Factor: Global weighted average around 20-35%.
O&M Costs: Global weighted average O&M costs at USD 0.024/kWh.
LCOE: Global weighted average LCOE at USD 0.077/kWh.
Cost Trends: Bioenergy LCOE increased by 13% in 2024, highlighting challenges in cost reduction for this sector.

Enabling Technologies

Battery Storage: Costs dropped by 93% since 2010, reaching USD 192/kWh in 2024.
Hybrid Systems: These systems are increasingly being used to enhance grid integration and economic performance, with capacity factor improvements linked to higher storage-to-generation ratios.
Digitalisation: Digital solutions are playing a growing role in improving the efficiency and reliability of renewable energy systems.

Conclusion

Renewable energy technologies have become more cost-effective and widely deployed in 2024, with onshore wind, solar PV, and hydropower leading the way. While cost reductions have been significant, short-term challenges such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain issues, and financing constraints remain. Enabling technologies like battery storage and digital solutions are critical for the continued growth and integration of renewables into the global energy system.

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